IT will be Umno’s 2020 general assembly this weekend but the 75-year-old grand dame of Malaysian politics will be discussing another party, Bersatu.

This makes sense, given developments since the two parties joined forces to topple the Pakatan Harapan government one year ago.

However, the marriage of convenience has not worked out well.

In 2019, a year after losing federal power, Umno only had one choice, which was to figure out how to work with its arch rival PAS under the Muafakat Nasional (MN) banner to regain control of the country at the 15th general election.

While Umno’s plan to return via the Malay-Muslim route was accelerated after Bersatu betrayed its GE14 mandate last year, things have not gone well for Barisan Nasional’s (BN) lynchpin party that had enjoyed power for six decades.

Umno president Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is now faced with Bersatu’s ambitions to replace his party as the lead party in government.

This did not seem possible a year ago, but Bersatu has demonstrated its ruthless potential to weaken Umno through defections.

Umno came to this realisation in the 2020 Sabah elections when Perikatan Nasional (PN), led by Bersatu, threw in enough independent candidates to spoil Umno’s chances in several seats.

Bersatu, the much smaller party, now wants Umno to “give” it those 15 seats where representatives have switched allegiances since GE14.

So, Umno has opted to cut ties with Bersatu for GE15. There is a belief that Bersatu does not have enough members or the campaign infrastructure to win on its own, thus having to rely on PAS and Umno.

To Umno, such a scenario makes little sense if it has to play second fiddle to Bersatu after GE15.

However, Zahid’s rejection of Bersatu has forced the quiet dissent from the pro-Bersatu group within Umno to grow more vociferous.

So much so that Perlis Umno chief and long-time Arau MP Shahidan Kassim openly said that his state will not abide by the party leadership’s decision to end ties with Bersatu.

Although he later backed down, as far back as last year the battle lines had already been drawn. Former BN general secretary Annuar Musa is one such notable casualty so far.

The divisions are so great today that Umno now has its own Covid-19-like clusters.

The “fitnah” cluster is to mark Umno groups out for spreading lies internally, the “mahkamah” cluster refers to the Umno leaders who face convictions for corruption, while the “kabinet” cluster denotes Umno leaders who are in Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s cabinet. The latter cluster is said to oppose Zahid’s plans to cut ties with Bersatu.

This rot within the Umno leadership has set so deep that Zahid told Utusan Malaysia recently at least two supreme council members were paid RM20,000 a month to leak internal discussions to their rivals.

With these developments as the backdrop, Umno’s 2020 general assembly this weekend will be dominated by debates on Bersatu, Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said.

“The general assembly will again discuss Umno’s position in the government and its relationship with Bersatu, even though 124 (65%) of the 190 divisions have already decided to cut ties in January,” said the pollster.

“Although the supreme council has already announced the party’s decision, there are still a number of Umno leaders who want to maintain ties with Bersatu and will want the general assembly to reassess its decision.

“This will be a direct challenge to Zahid’s leadership and we expect the debates to be heated,” said Hisomuddin, adding that the delegates will likely debate the pros and cons of leaving PN and MN.

“The Umno-PAS pact worked very well when both were in opposition but that relationship has changed ever since PAS decided to join the PN coalition.”

Although, Umno and PAS co-operate in states such as Selangor, Pahang and Kuala Lumpur, there is little of that co-operation in Johor, Terengganu, Kelantan and Kedah.

“PAS is not strong in Johor, while PAS and Umno are direct rivals in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. All this will be played out during the debates,” said Hisomuddin.

PKR, DAP and seats

If the Umno general assembly stamps its approval on dropping Bersatu in GE15, it will also have to look at future alliances, ie PKR and DAP, said the Universiti Malaya alumni.

“Delegates will expect definite answers from the leadership, particularly about the supposed talks with PKR and Anwar Ibrahim.”

During a recent interview with Utusan Malaysia, opposition leader Anwar alluded to “talks” with Umno on co-operating during GE15.

This has been denied by Zahid and Umno information chief Shahril Hamdan.

Larut youth exco Faisal Hisam said his division will state its position on seats once belonging to Umno but which Bersatu wants to claim for GE15.

His division in Larut is in the parliamentary constituency won by Home Minister Hamzah Zainuddin on an Umno ticket.

“This is an Umno seat. Although Hamzah has defected to Bersatu, we will use the general assembly to state our position on this,” Faisal told The Malaysian Insight.

Faisal expects other divisions – such as Tanah Merah, Jeli, Hulu Terengganu, Tasek Gelugor, Bagan Serai, Bukit Gantang, Sabak Bernam, Masjid Tanah, and Mersing – to raise the same issue. All these constituencies were won by Umno MPs who later defected to Bersatu.

“It’s not very clear what the Sabah divisions (Kudat, Beaufort, Sipitang, Beluran and Libaran) will say, following the state elections last year, but it’s bound to be interesting since they seem keen to surrender their seats to Bersatu,” said Faisal.

A total of 15 Umno MPs (10 from Peninsular Malaysia and five from Sabah) have defected to Bersatu since GE14.

Faisal, who was a prominent volunteer during by-elections involving BN, also expects PAS to be a pertinent issue.

“Many members are unhappy with them. If they continue to ‘play’ with Umno, we are ready to fight PAS again in the next elections,” said Faisal.

Batu division exco Norhisham Abdul Mutalib is also hoping for more clarity during the general assembly.

“We need to finalise the Bersatu relationship once and for all so that we can move on.

“Although, I personally prefer to stick with PAS and MN, I am open to any other possibilities,” said Norhisham, adding that deals with PKR or DAP could still be on the table.

“Nothing’s impossible. Politics is, after all, the art of possibilities.”

Umno will kick off its general assembly at the Putra World Trade Centre on Saturday with deputy president Mohamad Hasan officiating the Wanita, Pemuda and Puteri meetings.

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Umno will hold the meetings with half the selected delegates from 191 divisions meeting in the PWTC, while the others participate online.

Zahid will deliver his policy speech for the main conference on Sunday morning.

The public can watch the speeches and debates on the Umno Facebook page or the Umno Online website. – March 25, 2021.