UMNO is left with no choice but to back Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and the Perikatan Nasional government for now because it does not want to lose its own political power, said analysts.

They said the Umno leadership realises the party will not be automatically heading a new government if it comes to power right now.

Analysts told The Malaysian Insight there is a possibility that others – including rivals PKR, led by Anwar Ibrahim, or even Dr Mahathir Mohamad – would take the opportunity to form a government in the event Muhyiddin is ousted.

The opinions come in the wake of Umno toeing the PN line to ensure Budget 2021 was approved at the third and final stage in the Dewan Rakyat on Tuesday.

Any move by Umno lawmakers to vote down the budget would have resulted in its rejection and, in turn, resulting in Muhyiddin suffering a loss of confidence.

Budget 2021 was passed by three votes, giving PN the chance to continue ruling the country with the support of 111 MPs.

Dr Mazlan Ali, political scientist at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), said the Muhyiddin administration can now take this opportunity to negotiate alliances in seat-allocation talks with Umno for the 15th general election.

“Umno may be worried that if it does not support Muhyiddin, it will give others a chance to form a government, including the possibility for Pakatan Harapan’s comeback through Anwar, or Dr Mahathir.

“Assuming Muhyiddin falls, it does not guarantee that Umno will have the opportunity” to field its own prime minister.

“It will also give DAP a chance (to govern). Therefore, Umno dare not reorganise the political situation,” he said, adding that if Umno becomes the driving force behind PN’s downfall, it will be difficult to win the support of existing allies and even more difficult to ensure a stable government.

“If Umno continues to support the Muhyiddin government now, Umno can still play a certain role. Also, there is no consensus between Umno and other opposition parties.

“They are worried that after the fall of PN, it will lead to a new political crisis, and it is difficult to guarantee that Umno will continue to stay in power. Umno may still be looking for other solutions.”

In the Perak case, Umno started discussions with Pakatan Harapan to form a new state government but quickly dropped the idea, realising it would be losing Malay support by cooperating with DAP.

Despite that, Mazlan believes Umno may continue to make moves to shake the PN government in the future. He added that Unmo’s main aim is to call for a general election.

“When the time comes, Umno will act. Now, because of the unstable situation, there is no clear discussion on the changing of government.

“After the passing of Budget 2021, it is clear that Umno fully supports PN. It will give Muhyiddin and Bersatu a chance to ensure that they will form a major coalition when the general election comes.

“Umno may be prepared to hand over some seats to PN or Bersatu. Umno’s current support gives Bersatu a very good opportunity,” he added.

Najib-Zahid factor

Dr Lau Zhe Wei, assistant professor of the political science department at International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM), said the Budget 2021 vote showed that almost all Umno lawmakers were clearly sticking to the instructions of the party’s leadership, and the two most important characters are Najib Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

“The biggest ball in the game is not Umno but is connected to individuals. As long as the two leaders do not object, I do not think there is a problem,” he said.

The current PN government is not stable and depends on political manoeuvres to counter any move against it, Lau said, adding it is difficult for PH or any other opposition party to make a move at this stage but to wait when there is instability within PN.

“After Budget 2021 was passed, nothing will happen. Unless Umno does something, the no-confidence motion (against Muhyiddin) will not be submitted.”

Lau said it would be difficult to shake Muhyiddin’s position as prime minister without Umno making a move.

“Budget 2021 shows Muhyiddin’s toughness in facing opposition, including not bowing to Umno’s conditions on EPF withdrawals and extending the loan moratorium despite the political pressure.

“He seems very confident and has a tough attitude.”

Lau said since Muhyiddin came into power, his strategies often exceeded outsiders’ estimation, which show that political tactics are being used effectively. – December 17, 2020.