ISKANDAR Puteri MP Lim Kit Siang asked on October 13 whether the government’s strategy to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic was of suppression or mitigation.

It must have gone unnoticed or few understood the implications, but Lim had asked a pertinent question that unfortunately showed Putrajaya was unsure or did not have a clue. Part of the problem lies with the World Health Organisation (WHO) whose guidelines and policies member countries relied on were not evidence-based.

The much-awaited Covid-19 vaccine seems to be the only relied suppression strategy.

There are several vaccines at various phases of clinical studies. Until they are found efficacious and safe, mitigation to slow down the virus spread is the only other strategy adopted worldwide. 

This includes complete or partial lockdown, travel ban, mass gathering restriction, quarantine, social distancing measures, and usage of personal protection gear; at a high price and unaffordable economic cost. In our case the implementation has been to some extent, haphazard.

In my earlier piece (The Malaysian Insight, October 8), I argued for an in-between of the two strategies, drawing lessons from China’s Golden Week Holidays.

WHO said in a statement that the “best estimates” indicated one in 10 of people worldwide, or 10%, might have been infected with the coronavirus.

Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO head of emergencies for Covid-19, made the revealing statement while speaking to a special session of the WHO executive board on October 5.

Spokesman for WHO, Dr Margaret Harris, said that this estimate was based on an average of antibody studies conducted around the world. Presence of coronavirus antibodies indicates a person has been infected previously and has developed a degree of immunity towards the virus.  

Current world population as of October 2020 is 7.8 billion, which means approximately 780 million have been infected. Current confirmed cases are 39.7 million, while the WHO’s estimate is about 20 times more than this figure.

At the time of writing, 1.11 million people have died of Covid-19. Based on the WHO estimate, deaths are about 0.14% of the 780 million infected.

This 0.14% fatality rate is much lower than the WHO original estimate of 3.4%, as mentioned by the WHO director-general on March 3, when he made comparison to the seasonal flu that generally killed less than 1% of those infected. As such, the death tolls of Covid-19 and the seasonal flu can be said to be much more comparable.

The WHO has reported that the flu infection fatality rate is 0.1% or less. It also reported that each year up to 650,000 died of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu.

If these 650,000 deaths are aggregated with the seasonal flu deaths, it then presents a similarity to the Covid-19 fatalities. Both Covid-19 and influenza viruses have similar disease manifestation, in that both cause respiratory disease. Both present a wide range of diseases, from asymptomatic or mild, to severe, critical, and death.

This latest revelation regarding the estimated 10% worldwide Covid-19 infection implies the actual fatality rate is significantly lower than what WHO had earlier reported.

While it is correct to caution that the coronavirus has another 90% to infect, the WHO should at least paint a balanced picture and not portray doom and gloom or give cause to alarmist agents. The positive side of the 0.14% fatality is that 99.86% of those Covid-19 infected have survived.

This should not be construed as suggesting the coronavirus is not dangerous, as it is perilous especially to those with weakened immune systems.

The elderly and people with underlying disease conditions, such as coronary heart disease and heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and cancer, are at increased risk of severe illness from the virus.

In addition to the necessity to paint a balanced picture and recommend evidence-based strategies and policies, the WHO should also be seen to actively campaign for boosting the immune system of the people so that the yet-to-be-infected 90% people have reduced risk of developing serious illness once infected.

An omission of such highly significant nature that also conforms to scientific knowledge gives the impression that the WHO is at best, myopic, and at worst, a puppet stringed by the business-with-disease industry. 

A majority of the countries, including ours, are experiencing a second or third wave. Winter will soon arrive for most countries where traditionally the seasonal flu and respiratory diseases strike hardest.

WHO has to show its mantle independent of corporate influence. – October 22, 2020.

* Captain Dr Wong Ang Peng is a researcher with an interest in economics, politics, and health issues. He has a burning desire to do anything within his means to promote national harmony. Captain Wong is also a member of the National Patriots Association.

* Captain Dr Wong Ang Peng is a researcher with an interest in economics, politics, and health issues. He has a burning desire to do anything within his means to promote national harmony. Captain Wong is also a member of the National Patriots Association.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.