ANALYSTS believe the four-party ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will win the next state election.

However, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) Bintulu campus’ dean of the faculty of Humanities, Management and Science Jayum Jawan and University of Tasmania’s professor of Asian studies James Chin, are divided on the margin of victory.

While Chin said the coalition could lose its two-thirds majority in the 82-seat legislature, Jayum said GPS could win comfortably but “wished they would not have that two thirds”.

In the 2016 state election, GPS’ four parties – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) – were under Sarawak Barisan Nasional led by then chief minister, the late Adenan Satem.

They routed the opposition during those polls, which DAP saw lose five of the 12 seats they had before the dissolution of the assembly while PKR managed to hang on to their three seats.

PAS and its splinter, Amanah, failed to win any seats. 

In a webinar “The hornbill dilemma: Coming Sarawak state elections” last night, Chin said the next election will be a watershed which “on paper GPS will do well”, but its the margin of GPS’ victory that he’s most interested in.

The election discussion was moderated by Nuurrianti Jalli, the Miri-born assistant professor of communication studies at Northern State University in the United States.

Chin said it’s a watershed election because it is Chief Minister Abang Johari Openg’s first time in charge of a campaign to seek his own mandate and an election coming on the back of a post-2018 general election that had changed the country’s political landscape.

Chin said he believed Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB), led by former second state finance minister Wong Soon Koh, could have a significant impact on GPS’ rural Dayak seats.

“I’ve never seen a new party off the block so quickly and doing so well, especially in rural Dayak areas,” he said.

PSB was formed in 2014 as the United People’s Party (UPP) by losers in the SUPP leadership fight.

They were once accommodated in the Sarawak BN Plus state government.

Rebranded in late 2018 as PSB, they got booted out of the coalition in July last year for being “unfriendly”.

They were accused of undermining the coalition by pinching other parties’ members.

“I hope they (GPS) do not get a two-thirds majority. A simple majority will do,” Jawan said.

The Sibu-born Jawan said a two-third “will make them arrogant” and could lead to them getting out of touch with the people.

“A simple majority will ensure checks and balance, resulting in good leadership and good governance.”

In his opening remarks, Jawan had said the question of when the election will be held was not important.

He said what was important is that “the victors are more or less known”.

The state elections are expected to be called any time soon although the term only ends in the middle of next year. – October 15, 2020.