WITH Perikatan Nasional holding 34 of the 59 seats in the state assembly, the Slim by-election today will do little to change the balance of power in Perak.

Being a state seat, it will also not affect PN at the federal level. Yet the results in Slim will offer a glimpse of the future of two Umno leaders – one a former party president and the other currently holding the reins.

On paper, Pejuang’s Amir Khusyairi Tanusi chances are thin in the 77% Malay seat that Umno has won in four consecutive general elections since 2004.

Umno’s Mohd Khusairi Abdul Talib won with 70.7%, 63.6% and 59.8% of the popular vote in 2004, 2008 and 2013, respectively. In 2018, that dropped to 44.8% in a three-cornered fight with Pakatan Harapan and PAS, which respectively took 33.1% and 22.1% of the vote.

Since it teamed up with PAS after the 2018 general election, Barisan Nasional has racked up the votes in the polls, showing improved margins in the Semenyih, Cameron Highlands and Tg Piai by-elections. 

The Rantau results are omissible as lacking polls in 2018, there is no basis for comparison. Similarly in Kimanis, PAS did not influence the results as the Islamist party is not a force in Sabah.

Although it is a Malay-majority seat, Slim is a tough one for Pejuang as the constituency of 13 polling stations has seven Felda settlements which make up 57% of the 18,574 votes cast in GE14.

In that election, 51.1% of the settlers picked BN and 29.2% voted for PAS. PH had only 19.5% of the Felda votes.

With PAS now on his side, it will be surprising if Zaidi does not win at least 70% of the vote. Combined, the the two parties had 77.9% of the vote in the last general election.

In a pre-election analysis, Ilham Centre predicted a clear win for Umno although the pollsters felt Amir was the stronger candidate. Among BN’s strengths, said Ilham, were a vastly superior campaign machinery, its alliance with PAS, and Indian voters’ shift back to BN.

Najib’s back

Although former Umno president Najib Razak has been a regular figure on the campaign trail since the Sg Kandis by-election, he has mostly limited himself to visiting the “safe” areas. 

In Sg Kandis, for instance, he only called on known Umno voters and generally kept out of the way elsewhere as sentiments against him were still strong in the urban seat. This strategy was repeated in Semenyih and Cameron Highlands. In the Seri Setia, Balakong and Port Dickson by-elections, Najib did not show his face at all.

It was not until the Chini by-election on his home ground of Pekan that Najib went all out. 

Like Chini, Slim has seven Felda settlements. Najib has worked harder here than any other national leader. 

Since nomination day on August 15, Najib has spent all his weekends in Slim, going from settlement to settlement reminding settlers of what he has done for them, performing prayers at the local mosques and “hanging out” with the local leaders at the warung. Najib is so hardworking that he held one more ceramah last night although BN traditionally does not campaign on the eve of polling.

At one function, Najib told voters that if they sympathised with him, who was recently convicted of corruption, they should vote for BN.

But with Slim as good as in the bag, who is Najib campaigning for?

Popularity contest

There is no question that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has turned the party around after BN lost to PH in the 2018 polls.

In between court appearances, Zahid managed to stop more MPs from ditching Umno for Bersatu, fostered a new partnership with arch enemy PAS and most importantly, steered Umno back into power after a reverse takeover in February.

Although this has not gone unnoticed among the Umno grassroots, rumblings of discontent have been heard as party elections loom next year.

While Umno’s grassroots are pleased that the party is once again in government, many are uneasy about a long-term relationship with Bersatu.

Some party campaigners in Slim said that they were puzzled that Zahid was not pressing for fresh polls and had even invited Bersatu into Muafakat Nasional.

Zahid’s indecision over allocation of seats in the next general election, in particular for Bersatu, which wrested from Umno 15 of its parliamentary seats in the last elections, has not gone down well with the grassroots.

In Felda Besout 2, Larut Umno Youth member Faisal Hisam said: “Larut is our seat. Why shouldn’t we contest it?

“How would you feel if someone came and took away your chair?”

Faisal is not unique in feeling this way. Umno Supreme Council member Zahidi Zainul Abidin has said that Umno will not give up its seats to Bersatu.

At a ceramah on Thursday night, Zahid brushed aside Zahidi’s remarks, noting that nothing had been decided.

Another issue pricking at Zahid is PAS.

While Umno has declined to make the PN coalition official, as desired by Bersatu, PAS has quietly gone ahead to register as a member of its protem committee, together with MIC, STAR and PBRS. MIC signed up to join but later changed its mind but it looks like PAS is staying put.

While BN wants to keep PAS and its million faithful followers on its side, it prefers to hold “the other Malay party” Bersatu, at arm’s length. BN also wants to reclaim the prime minister’s office after GE15 is won. 

If it were to be subsumed under PN, it would be subject to Bersatu’s demands. Bersatu is the weakest Malay link in the coalition with only 31 MPs – and that is after it took in 25 defectors from Umno and PKR.

Another day, another party

It’s not a surprise that Dr Mahathir Mohamad would start another party after having lost control in Umno and then Bersatu.

According to the 95-year-old, whose vitality belies his age, the two parties had deviated from their objective, which is to strive for their race, religion and country.

Many had begun to question his relevance in Malay politics but on Thursday, the de facto Pejuang chairman showed his doubters what he was still capable of.

Dr Mahathir managed to deliver two ceramah in Felda Besout and Felda Trolak Utara to full capacity crowds.

In Felda Besout, a small group of settlers heckled him from a distance while in Trolak Utara, he was twice interrupted by the drumming of PN youth members, who were holding court nearby.

But he kept his cool, remarking that they could pound all they want, likening them to Umno MPs Azeez Abdul Rahim and Shahidan Kassim in parliament when they shout down the opposition during debates.

“This only shows what Umno has become. And as long as I live, this is my struggle,” said Dr Mahathir.

For the record, Dr Mahathir had three times as many people at his ceramah than PN youth did at theirs.

Tonight’s results will not change Perak. Nor will it change Putrajaya.

A strong showing of more than 80% of the Felda vote for Umno would mean that the settlers are firmly behind the party and to a certain extent, Najib. Anything less than 70% would indicate that Dr Mahathir has made an impact in Pejuang’s maiden election campaign despite Umno’s superior machinery.

Anything less than 55% could mean PAS’ desertion. This would send shockwaves through Zahid’s camp.

The Slim by-election results will not alter the political landscape – for now. But for Dr Mahathir, Zahid and Najib, they have great ramifications. – August 29, 2020.