TWO-AND-A-HALF years ago, the only party for the Muslim Bumiputeras in Sabah was Umno, said its activist Muhammad Yunos.

During nomination day for the 14th general election in 2018, people were embarrassed to wear the light blue and white uniform of Warisan.

At that time, Umno’s keris flag was a common sight in Sabah’s west coast, where the party has deep roots among the Bajau and Malay communities, said the 49-year-old from Tuaran.

Now, Umno, which once dominated Sabah politics, is left with only one legislator from the 17 elected in GE14.

The party is fighting to make a comeback in the Sabah elections after it lost territory, resources and members to Warisan and Bersatu.

“In some seats, such as Sulaman, the Umno assemblyman (Hajiji Noor) left and took about 60% of members with him,” said Yunos, who asked that only his first name be used, as he is a civil servant.

Hajiji left the party he represented in six general elections to form the Sabah chapter of Bersatu months after GE14.

Since the 2018 polls victory, Warisan and its allies, called “Warisan Plus”, have governed Sabah and grew in strength.

In that time, Warisan, headed by Mohd Shafie Apdal, spread its branches among Muslim Bumiputeras on Sabah’s west coast – an Umno stronghold.

“Before GE14, Warisan was more popular among the Bajau Laut, who mostly live on the east coast,” said Yunos.

The Bajau Samah on the west coast gravitated towards Umno.

“But these days, you see Bajau Samah going to Warisan because after winning GE14 and governing Sabah Warisan has proved itself to be a strong alternative to Umno,” said Yunos, who is also a Bajau Samah.

“So, it’s going to be challenging for Umno to win back Sabah from Warisan.”

In the historic GE14, Sabah, once considered a fixed deposit for the former ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, fell to Warisan and its allies PKR and DAP.

Warisan captured 21 out of the 60 state seats, while the Sabah chapters of DAP and PKR won six and two seats respectively.

When six legislators from Upko defected from Sabah BN to support Warisan, Warisan Plus had a majority in the assembly to form the state government.

In the days after the Warisan-led state government was formed, Umno gradually lost all its assemblymen, except Musa Aman, to either Bersatu or Warisan.

Musa tried to stage a comeback in late July, when he said he had the numbers to be chief minister. 

But Shafie disputed this and advised the Yang Dipertua Negeri to dissolve the state assembly. The state elections are on September 26.

No more winds of change

Interviews with Muslim Bumiputeras on the west coast appear to support Yunos’ observations on the changing attitudes of communities that used to support Umno.

“Even after Warisan lost the state government, the (Umno) members the party attracted seemed to stay put,” said Mubin Pelasin, a villager in Sepanggar, a parliamentary constituency on the west coast.

“People saw that Warisan helped out everyone regardless of race, religion or party affiliation. I think there will still be strong support for Warisan in Sepanggar,” said the 51-year-old businessman.

Political economist Firdausi Suffian said Warisan’s victories in Sabah west coast, such as in Sepanggar, Kota Belud and Papar, were unexpected due to the differing communal sentiments between the region’s west and east.

“People like (Sepanggar MP) Azis Jamman who is from the east coast was able to win on the west coast. These were surprising victories because of the different dynamics in the two regions,” said Firdausi Suffian of Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Sabah.

Warisan is able to build new branches throughout the west coast to solidify its foundation, said Firdausi.

But whether Warisan can hold on to the support it has built and whether those votes will return to Sabah Umno will be tested in the elections as the atmosphere has changed since GE14.

“There were winds of change during GE14 as voters wanted to punish BN and that is why Warisan and Pakatan Harapan were able to win. But that feeling is no longer present,” said Firdausi.

Warisan’s partner PH, no longer controls Putrajaya, whereas Umno and Bersatu are part of the Perikatan Nasional federal administration.

Former chief minister Musa’s ability to get back the Warisan defectors is a sign that Sabah Umno has not lost its teeth.

Sabah Umno’s biggest hurdle to its revival is forging a pact with Bersatu amid disputes over seats and who gets to be chief minister if they win, said Firdausi.

The Sabah opposition’s fragmentation and infighting has given Warisan Plus an early edge in campaigns for the polls. – August 24, 2020.