ON July 30, the Sabah Legislative Assembly was dissolved after Mohd Shafie Apdal, now the caretaker chief minister, put in a formal request to Governor Juhar Mahiruddin.

According to the state constitution, elections must be held within 60 days of the dissolution. So far, the nomination and polling dates have not been announced. The episode occurred as the world is ravaged by Covid-19, with the biggest single-day increase in cases – 297,133 – recorded just two days after Juhar’s announcement.

Following the Chini by-election on July 4 and Singapore’s general election on July 10, some would say the Sabah vote is doable and can use the previous two polls as a reference. Though the political need to hold snap elections is understandable, they may well exacerbate the coronavirus crisis. Here’s why.

From the day of the governor’s announcement until August 14, there were 25 new Covid-19 cases in Sabah and Labuan. These constituted only 12% of the country’s total fresh cases in that period, but the nature of the infections should cause worry to state health authorities. Thirteen cases were imported from the Philippines, with which Sabah shares a long, porous maritime border. It should be mentioned that daily cases in our Asean neighbour peaked at 6,725 on August 11, and the virus threat there is showing no sign of abating.

Meanwhile, eight of the 12 local transmissions in Sabah were detected in screenings at hospitals and detention centres, with the latest case reported on August 12. This implies that the disease is very much present and spreading in the community.

If we look at the local transmissions as of August 5, nine districts – three of which are major cities, namely Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Tawau – had at least one active case in the past 14 days. This persisted until August 10. The situation in Sabah is unlike the outbreak in Sarawak, which peaked on July 28, and with the infections largely concentrated and contained in Kuching.

Now, think of the mass movement of people in both urban and rural areas due to the Sabah elections. Keep in mind that the state’s population this year is estimated at 3.9 million.

For those who think Sabah is able to replicate Singapore’s low-risk election campaign, they need to understand the fundamental differences between the two places. Sabah is the poorest state in Malaysia in terms of median monthly household income, according to the Household Income and Basic Amenities Survey 2019. Of the 10 lowest-income districts in the country, four are in Sabah, of which three are bottom-most on the list. A third of rural households in the state don’t have an internet subscription, 10% don’t own a smartphone, and a third don’t even have piped water.

For Sabahans who do have internet access, a major issue for many is connection stability. In June, a Universiti Malaysia Sabah student made the news for having to stay in a tree to get better internet connection. It’s no surprise that she lives in Pitas, the poorest district in the country.

Sabah’s lack of infrastructure is the biggest obstacle preventing politicians from leveraging technology to campaign ahead of the polls. There’s no way they can make much of an impact through a virtual campaign outside of a handful of urban seats.

Also, there is a significant number of Sabahans living and working in the peninsula, and this group has far better connectivity and can sway the election results. It remains to be seen whether they will feel motivated enough to return to their home state to cast their ballots. With the Election Commission not planning to allow postal voting, Sabah’s Covid-19 quarantine rules are potentially a big factor in determining just how many will make the trip back.

The risk of infection is not only on polling day itself, but throughout the duration of the campaign, which usually involves a fair amount of personal interaction between candidates and the electorate – handshakes, hugging, kenduri, door-to-door visits, walkabouts in crowded places, ceramah, distributing leaflets and goods, etc. If the Health Ministry bans all these activities, how else will a candidate have a strong and effective campaign? Even if they are allowed with health and safety measures in place, there’s the question of who will conduct monitoring and take action should there be breaches.

The state elections are a high-stakes contest between Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Plus, the alliance between Pakatan Harapan and its allies, including Parti Warisan Sabah. Leaders from the various parties will participate in the campaign, and programmes will surely not be held only in a few districts. The movement of campaign teams across a large number of areas increases the prospect of spreading Covid-19, and there are already as many as six districts with active cases in the last fortnight. This is a far cry from the Chini by-election, where only one seat was involved, making things easier to control.

There’s no better way to end the state’s political impasse than to conduct elections. However, now isn’t the best time as the virus menace lingers. The Health Ministry and EC must undertake preparations seriously and make sure candidates and party workers strictly adhere to the standard operating procedures.

Malaysians don’t want to see Sabah having to deal with fresh outbreaks. The state’s sociopolitical disarray has already given residents a massive headache. – August 17, 2020.

* Lim Chee Han is a founding member of Agora Society and a policy researcher. He holds a PhD in infection biology from Hannover Medical School, Germany, and an MSc in immunology and BSc in biotechnology from Imperial College London. Health and socioeconomic policies are his concerns. He believes a nation can advance significantly if policymaking and research are taken seriously.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.