THE failure to retake Sabah through party defections represents a huge setback for Perikatan Nasional, already reeling from Umno’s decision to stick to its Muafakat Nasional pact, said analysts.

“This is a big blow to Perikatan, former chief minister Musa Aman, Home Minister Hamzah Zainuddin and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin after having failed to take back Sabah without elections,” said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

Awang Azman, who is from Sarawak, was commenting on Governor Juhar Mahiruddin’s decision to dissolve the Sabah legislature for fresh elections.

This is also PN’s second blow after Umno said it’s not part of PN although it’s still supporting the current government.

Warisan president Shafie Apdal said yesterday he asked Juhar to dissolve the state assembly on Wednesday night following Musa’s claims that he had obtained the support of 33 assemblymen in the 65-seat assembly.

Prior to Musa’s claim, the opposition consisting of Bersatu, Barisan Nasional and several independents had only 20 votes to Warisan’s 45. But a swing of 13 assemblymen meant that Shafie no longer had the majority.

Following PN’s takeover of Putrajaya, the coalition also retook Johor, Malacca, Perak and Kedah with party defections, without facing fresh elections.

While former Malacca chief minister Adly Zahari also tried to dissolve the state assembly before the state fell, former Umno Supreme Council member and Governor Mohd Khalil Yaakob declined the request, paving the way for Umno to retake the state.

Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal said the decision to dissolve the Sabah legislature was correct as Sabah had become unstable after more than 13 government assemblymen decided to back Musa instead.

“Perikatan’s move to take over the Sabah government with statutory declarations (SDs) gives the impression that they were enticed by offers,” said Azlan.

“Hence, the move for fresh elections is correct as it gives Sabahans the chance to choose again unlike what had happened to several states in Peninsular Malaysia following Perikatan’s takeover of Putrajaya.”

Who has the upper hand?

With fresh elections expected in the next two months, both political science analysts believe that Warisan will have the upper hand.

The Election Commission must hold fresh elections within 60 days after the dissolution of the state assembly. The Sabah assembly increased the number of seats from 60 to 73 after the bill was passed by Parliament in July 2019.

“Warisan has more potential as it is a local party and Sabah politics is founded on ethnocentric nationalism,” said Awang Azman, who heads the Malay Studies Department.

“Bersatu and Umno will also be seen as the parties that tried to topple Warisan without good reason in the middle of a war against the Covid-19 pandemic.”

But he said money politics and the tendency to jump parties remain prevalent in the state.

“And that could go either way, Warisan or Perikatan,” said Awang Azman.

Although Shafie has an advantage, the danger is not over for the Warisan president following Musa’s ability to cause 13 defections, said Azlan

“Musa will also have the help of the Perikatan federal government,” said the pollster.

But both sides have weaknesses, as Shafie could not fulfil all of its manifesto promises during his two-year rule while Musa is still implicated with a corruption scandal although he was acquitted of 46 charges after PN came into power.

Azlan said victory in Sabah does not depend on the big guns but on local candidates.

“But if Musa wins, it will be a signal for Perikatan to go for snap polls at the federal level.” – July 31, 2020.