PAST electoral data is no guarantee Perikatan Nasional can make a clean sweep of all 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah in the next general election, said analysts.

Although the number of combined Malay votes won by Umno, PAS and Bersatu in federal seats in 2018 may show a win on paper, other obstacles line their path to victory, they said.

Political analyst Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said voting patterns in the 14th general election cannot be used as a yardstick because of changes in parameters.

“The trend in GE14 cannot be used as an indicator of the GE15 voting pattern because the number of voters has increased and the political dynamics have also changed, depending on the achievements of PN at the federal and state levels.

“PN must also be careful not to get complacent. No matter how great a political strategy is, it will not ensure victory if they fail to unite leaders and supporters, especially on the issue of candidates,” said Azizuddin, who is a professor in politics at Universiti Utara Malaysia.

He warned against the possibility of disgruntled leaders creating problems for PN if their demands are not met.

“They can sabotage the party, as seen during GE12, GE13 and GE14,” Azizuddin added.

PN is not a formally registered coalition and analysts have previously warned of the difficulties the smaller, newer Bersatu would face when trying to negotiate seats with more established parties like Umno and PAS.

Another factor that should not be taken lightly is the influence of Kedah politicians, such as Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son Mukhriz, Azizuddin said.

“Kedah is the state of former prime minister, Dr Mahathir, and former menteri besar, Mukhriz.

“They and Pakatan Harapan have the support, strength and experience to achieve victory.

“However, as long as PH component parties keep arguing with each other, PN has a good chance of winning in GE15.”

Ilham Centre executive chairman Hisomuddin Bakar also said it’s too early to say if PN could win all 15 seats in Kedah based solely on GE14 data.

Votes for PAS in 2018, when the Islamist party deliberately sought three-cornered fights, would not necessarily go to PN in the next election.

“During GE14, we realised there were those who voted for PAS in Kedah, not because they supported or believed in the party, but out of protest against Umno and Najib Razak over corruption in 1Malaysia Development Bhd.

“How this group will vote in the next election is still unclear,” said Hisomuddin, whose work as a pollster and researcher in previous elections has involved collating voters’ views.

Another question mark is the stance of young and first-time voters who will be participating in the next general election, Hisomuddin added.

For these reasons, PAS and Umno cannot easily assume they can control the 15 federal seats in Kedah just by counting the number of votes won by both parties in the last election.

“Although the PAS-Umno pact is growing stronger, they have not been tested in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu,” Hisomuddin said, referring to the Muafakat Nasional pact formalised last year.

Although the number of votes for PAS and Umno showed the two parties together could capture eight federal seats in Kedah, a PH candidate could still win due to non-Malay votes.

“There are mixed seat areas with substantial non-Malay voters, such as Alor Star and Sg Petani. It looks favourable to PN on paper when you combine all the Malay votes.

“But, in the last few elections, candidates from Pakatan Rakyat or PH still won in places such as Sg Petani,” he said.

Eight of the 15 federal seats in question are Jerlun, Kubang Pasu, Pokok Sena, Kuala Kedah, Merbok, Sg Petani, Padang Serai and Kulim-Bandar Baharu.

In GE14, PH managed to win 10 of these 15 seats. PAS won three seats while Umno won two.

PN was able to form the Kedah government after Putrajaya changed hands in February, following support from Bersatu, led by Muhyiddin Yassin, and former PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali’s faction.

The political crisis also caused three Bersatu MPs in Kedah to be sacked from the party – Dr Mahathir (Langkawi), Mukhriz (Jerlun) and Amiruddin Hamzah (Kubang Pasu) – who are still influential in the state.

Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor from PAS, however, is confident that PN can sweep all parliamentary seats in the state.

“Kedah PN’s target is to control 15 parliamentary and 36 state seats. This is based on the current political reality where the people no longer accept PH and have received PN well.”

Other state PAS leaders, such as Kedah youth chief Nurul Amin Hamid, also believe the target to win Kedah in the next polls is realistic.

Kedah PH chairman Johari Abdul, meanwhile, has said the opposition aims to win more than the seven parliamentary seats they currently hold in the next general election, even if by a slim majority.

PH will rely on support from young voters, he said. – July 29, 2020.