FORMER prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s nomination of Mohd Shafie Apdal as Pakatan Plus’ prime ministerial candidate is only a short-term solution, said analysts.

They said the primary reason for Shafie’s nomination was Anwar Ibrahim’s lack of support among MPs.

It is also coupled with Dr Mahathir’s reported securing of the backing of former PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali and former Umno vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein for the Warisan president’s nomination.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst professor Mazlan Ali told The Malaysian Insight that if Azmin and Hishammuddin back Dr Mahathir – and Shafie by extension – then they would have the support of 116 MPs.

According to seating arrangements on the one-day parliamentary sitting on May 18, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had 114 MPs on his side, a majority by only three.

Mazlan said Dr Mahathir had likely already reached an agreement with Azmin and Hishammuddin to seize power during a rumoured meeting in Langkawi recently.

However, Dr Mahathir’s aide had rubbished reports of such a secret meeting on the island.

“Dr Mahathir nominated Shafie because he knew there wouldn’t be enough support if he had nominated Anwar instead. Anwar does not have the support of Warisan, Dr Mahathir’s faction in Bersatu, and Sarawak parties. That’s the issue,” Mazlan said.

Mazlan added the former prime minister’s other objective was to consolidate Shafie’s position in Sabah, where he is also chief minister, while still having DAP and Amanah’s support.

“Dr Mahathir’s strategy is to keep the coalition’s objective of wrestling back power reasonable, and if Shafie does not act, then it’ll be over.

“Former Sabah chief minister Musa Aman and Umno are already attacking Shafie; if he becomes PH’s prime ministerial candidate, that will logically strengthen his position.

“I think with the combined numbers from DAP, Amanah, Warisan and some MPs with Azmin and Hishammuddin, Dr Mahathir now has 116 on his side,” he said.

Mazlan said Anwar may refuse to back Dr Mahathir’s plan, which also saw the elderly statesman nominating the PKR president and Mukhriz Mahathir as deputy prime ministers.

Shafie won’t agree

Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia assistant professor Lau Zhe Wei, meanwhile, said Dr Mahathir’s strategy will not work.

Lau said Shafie is an admirable politician in his own right, and agreeing to be a short-term prime minister may mean the end of his political career.

Also, due to Sabah and Sarawak’s autonomy, the chief ministers of the two states wield more power than a federal minister, but less than a deputy prime minister.

“Is it possible to have someone from Warisan as the deputy prime minister? I don’t think it’s tenable.

“So, Shafie is then given the prime minister’s post, but that’s not ideal either because he has to give up Sabah. If the federal government remains unstable, can he then return to Sabah to be chief minister again?

“The federal government is unstable now, but the Sabah government seems to be on good ground. So, I don’t think Shafie will take up the offer to be prime minister,” he said.

Lau said Shafie also does not appear to be worried about challenges against him from within Warisan, and thus, he could nominate someone else in the party to take his place.

However, Lau said Warisan does not have other viable candidates as it is a multiracial party, and there are no other high-ranking party members worthy of the prime ministerial position.

“Perhaps choosing another prestigious candidate besides Shafie to be prime minister for the next two to three years is possible, especially if PKR agrees,” Lau said.

However, he said the federal government is halfway into its term and whether or not Shafie will accept the nomination is is still up in the air.

Lau also said that it would be much easier for younger politicians to step down if they are chosen for a top post due to a lack of other commitments.

“If Shafie were to step down after becoming prime minister, it’s bad for him politically and it does not look good either. If it’s someone else, however, it might be easier,” he said.

As for Mukhriz being appointed instead, Lau said it is similarly not feasible.

“Neither Shafie nor Mukhriz can step down easily,” he said.

Lau said it was unrealistic to ask younger politicians to take up a national leadership role and then hand over power to someone else.

He said Shafie will likely not agree to it, nor will PKR.

Dr Mahathir’s short-term aim

Mazlan also agreed that the strategy was not a long-term solution to the ongoing political tussle and is only a method to seize power.

“I don’t think Dr Mahathir is planning for the next election, only to seize power for the moment and plan for eventualities later.

“The arrangements for the 15 general election will be different as there will be new strategies, but Dr Mahathir’s objective right now is only to reclaim power from Muhyiddin,” he said.

He added PKR is not likely to cut ties with its PH allies DAP and Amanah as the cooperation of the three parties is still necessary.

“We are talking about the current situation, and that is reclaiming the people’s mandate.” – July 5, 2020.