BERSATU has a slim chance of surviving a general election, given its comparatively weaker position among its Perikatan Nasional counterparts, said analysts amid speculation that snap polls will be called. 

Both sides of the political divide are embroiled in a battle for majority numbers, while Muhyiddin Yassin’s PN government is trying to prove its legitimacy after taking power with a slim majority in March.

However, it is more likely Bersatu will end up becoming a casualty if snap polls are held, said political science lecturer Dr Lau Zhe Wei. 

“Bersatu will be the biggest loser. It has no unique selling points. Unlike Pakatan Harapan and Muafakat Nasional (comprising Umno and PAS), the party on its own is lacking,” said Lau of International Islamic University Malaysia. 

“If voters want a Malay nationalist party, they can choose Umno. If people want an Islamic party, they can choose PAS. If they don’t want an Islamist party that is right-wing, there is Amanah in the opposition.

“Therefore, I cannot see where Bersatu stands in the current political situation. They cannot take a right-wing direction as they are no match for Umno and PAS.

“Also, they cannot be left-wing or claim to stand for universal values after betraying the voters’ mandate.”

He was referring to Bersatu’s role, led by Muhyiddin as its president, in toppling the PH government in late February.

Against then chairman and prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s wishes, Muhyiddin withdrew the party from PH to form a new coalition with Barisan Nasional, PAS and renegade PKR leaders, with the support of Gabungan Parti Sarawak.

This led to Dr Mahathir’s resignation as prime minister and the collapse of the PH government.

Weakest link

Bersatu, formed more recently in 2016, is weaker in terms of membership, mobilisation and grassroots stability compared with older parties.

The allocation of seats in the next election will be a major hurdle within PN mainly because the parties have stood against each other at the same constituencies in the previous elections.

Bersatu also comprises former Umno members, which could give rise to disputes on candidacy.

In the 2018 general election, Bersatu won only 13 out of 52 federal seats it contested. It was PH’s newest party, co-founded in 2016 by Dr Mahathir and Muhyiddin.

Currently, Bersatu has 33 MPs after the party revoked the membership of Dr Mahathir (Langkawi), Mukhriz Mahathir (Jerlun), Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman (Muar), Dr Maszlee Malik (Simpang Renggam) and Amiruddin Hamzah (Kubang Pasu).

The 33 MPs consist of seven who won under the PH ticket in 2018, 15 from Umno and 11 PKR dissidents.

Lau said the allocation of seats will be a big challenge for PN member parties to negotiate. 

“I cannot imagine how they will allocate. It will be three parties fighting for seats with similar characteristics.”

Umno would also want to have the most seats to ensure the prime minister can come from its party, Lau added.

Another analyst Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said Umno and PAS are already in Muafakat Nasional and could conceivably decide they do not need the smaller Bersatu as an elections partner.

“If they think they are strong enough, Muafakat may proceed in GE15 without Bersatu.”

Lau said might lead to Bersatu standing alone in the next elections, which would greatly diminish its chances of survival.

Lack of branding

Azizuddin also said PN still has to establish a “political brand” that reflects all its member parties. 

“They will have to agree on candidacy, manifesto and policy agenda for GE15.

“However, if there is infighting within PN on many issues, the unofficial coalition will crumble,” said the associate professor of politics and international relations at Universiti Utara Malaysia’s School of International Studies. 

Azizuddin said PN could leverage on its performance handling the Covid-19 pandemic, which might help propel Muhyiddin’s profile in some seats. 

If the economy makes a healthy recovery under PN, this would further shore up its position.

“As long as they are in the government, PN has the resources to remain in power. 

“It does look like PN has the upper hand. But the reality is that the political dynamics can change quickly.”

Lau said some of these factors include voter turnout, with the real possibility of voters losing interest due to political fatigue and disillusionment after PH’s collapse and the continued politicking. 

“They may feel as if their vote no longer matters.”

A high voter turnout, like the 80% turnout during GE14, would be a good indication that voters are concerned enough to have a say. Lau expects issues, such as PN’s political appointments and the discharge of high-profile cases involving Riza Aziz and Musa Aman, to influence voter sentiments.

Azizuddin, however, feels fence-sitters are likely to vote based on performance. 

“In the next polls, they may gravitate towards PN because of the government’s handling of Covid-19 and the economic crisis.” 

Azizuddin also said fence-sitters were divided in GE14. 

“PH only got 48% of the popular vote even though they won the general election with a simple majority.”

PH will need to work specifically on gaining support from Malay voters and show they can be a better alternative to PN, he said. – June 15, 2020.