WE are moving towards an easing of the movement control order (MCO).

This decision has been made in the context of balancing the risk to human life against economic losses. There are real risks in taking this course of action at this stage.

Malaysia has not done enough random testing for Covid-19. The figures we have been given are mostly for detected or reported cases.

A report in the Our World in Data site states that testing is our window into the pandemic and how it is spreading. Without testing, we have no way of understanding the pandemic.

It is one of the most important tools in the fight to slow and reduce the spread and impact of the virus. Tests allow us to identify infected individuals, guide the medical treatment they receive, and enables us to isolate those infected and conduct contact tracing. And, it can help in the allocation of medical resources and staff more efficiently.

But, testing in Malaysia has been woefully low. The figures as at April 29 are 4.76 per thousand people; 154,203 in total. This does not help much. Our neighbour, Singapore’s figures are 17.08 per thousand people; 99,929 in total (as of April 27).

Testing on a wide scale is not easy and requires massive manpower and resources. The Health Ministry is doing its best with the available resources but progress is limited.

In this scenario, it is not possible to analyse with any degree of certainty the actual prevalence of the virus. The Ro (R naught) figure (the rate of infection or transmission of the virus), which is an important metric, cannot be properly ascertained.

This must be understood in the context that the majority of infected persons are asymptomatic; they show no signs of infection. Only an antibody test will reveal that they have been infected.

So, there could be thousands of infected people who could spread the virus without having any symptoms themselves.

To this we add the problem that there are large numbers of illegal workers in Malaysia who will not come forward for fear of action being taken against them.

This category will probably comprise both symptomatic and asymptomatic persons. With the opening up of businesses, these illegal workers will come back to work in factories, restaurants and other industries.

The government’s assertion that the virus is under control is an overstatement and meaningless in light of inadequate testing. We should proceed with great caution as some countries that have opened up show an immediate rise in the number of infected persons.

We have not eliminated or “controlled” the spread of the virus. All our lockdowns and social distancing can achieve is delay the spread. We are just buying time until a vaccine or pharmaceutical cure is found.

Until then, we should use the delay of the spread to gather our resources to handle a widespread outbreak in terms of adequate medical and hospital facilities.

Without this state of readiness, we will be risking lives. The economy can be revived in time but lost lives cannot be recovered. The bogey of billions likely to be lost is not very intimidating in a country that has recovered from hundreds of billions lost through corruption and bad governance for more than 30 years. – May 3, 2020.

* D.P. Vijandran is a practising lawyer.