BEHIND all the tough talk and threats is this reality: Pakatan Harapan needs PAS in its corner.

And PH knows that this weekend’s PAS muktamar could be a pivotal moment for the Islamist party to decide whether it will team up with Umno, go with PH or go it alone.

So from now until the weekend, expect PH politicians to apply pressure on the PAS leadership and rank-and-file by issuing statements and survey findings which paint a stark scenario for the party if it chooses to contest the coming general election under its own banner.

PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli today fired the first salvo by releasing a survey results which showed that PAS would lose to both Amanah and new PH member, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), if the Islamist party met either one of them and Umno in the general election.

This was the same warning issued by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad who said there would be three or even four-cornered fights if PAS refused to cooperate with the opposition coalition in facing Barisan Nasional (BN).

Dr Mahathir, who is also Bersatu chairman, had said even if Bersatu joins up with PAS to form Gagasan Sejahtera, a third opposition bloc, they will lose the election.

The Invoke Centre for Policy Initiatives, of which Rafizi is the founder, today released the results showing that PAS would lose to both Amanah and new Pakatan Harapan member if the Islamist party met either one of them and Umno in GE14.

The survey was released just after PAS had threatened its former colleagues in PH with three-cornered fights yesterday.

In their survey of 10,523 registered voters, PAS polled the lowest support from opposition voters in the three-cornered fights.

Invoke conducted the 40-question poll from Feb 6 to April 6 this year. The survey involved calling some 1.67 million voters randomly, of which 116,922 voters answered the calls. However, only 10,523 of those polled answered all 40 questions.

The survey showed that if PAS contested against Amanah, it would get 24.4% of the votes compared to Amanah’s 44.6%. Umno would get slightly over 10%. Amanah is a PAS splinter party led by former leader Muhamad Sabu.

Against Bersatu and Umno, PAS would get even less – 22.1%, compared to Bersatu’s 43.2% and Umno’s 7.2%.

Its chances would be the same if it stood against former colleagues PKR and DAP respectively in three-cornered fights against Barisan Nasional.

PKR would get 59.6%, PAS 23.8% and Umno 2.3%. Against DAP, PAS would get 25.9% while Umno would get 5.2%. DAP would rake in 57.1% of the opposition votes.

“If there is a three-cornered fight, voter sentiment will shift to a clash between BN and PH. PAS’s support will drop quicker than other opposition parties,” the survey stated.

In the Invoke survey, the remaining respondents, who did not commit to an answer, replied that they had not decided or did not know, declined to answer or would choose not to vote.

With 35% choosing not to say which party they were voting for, Invoke concluded that these respondents were either PAS or PH supporters because the number of voters going for Umno or BN were low.

The survey also found that among opposition party members, the ones least inclined to go out and vote in three-cornered fights are from PAS.

Only 87.2% of PAS voters would go out to vote, compared to PKR’s 94%, DAP’s 91.4%, Amanah’s 90.1% and Bersatu’s 90%. Even Umno had a higher percentage at 90.3%.

The survey also showed the level of support for PKR, Umno and PAS in a three-cornered fight. Umno came ahead with 29.8% followed by PKR (22.3%) and PAS (11.2%).

PAS fared no better if the three-cornered battle involved Bersatu and Umno with Islamists again coming in lowest at 10.8%. Umno came out top with 30.5% while Bersatu had 18.4%.

They, however, improved slightly if the three-cornered fight included Amanah. Umno still led the way at 32.2%, Amanah (16.1%) and PAS (12.5%).

PAS will hold its party elections and annual general meeting in Alor Star from April 29 to May 1. The party is also expected to discuss whether it will cut ties with PKR, which will pave the way for them to face GE14 alone.

The party left opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat in June 2015 after a series of disagreements over the implementation of hudud with DAP. Leading to the annual congress in Kedah this weekend, most PAS divisions have passed resolutions to cut ties with PKR too. – April 25, 2017.