MORE than 20 months since the last general election, politics remains as turbulent as ever, with infighting continuing to dog Pakatan Harapan.

As for Barisan Nasional, the former ruling coalition will look back on 2019 as the year it found its way back.

Though it lost more than a dozen MPs, assemblymen and senators to Bersatu, and saw the collapse of its Sabah chapter at the start of the year, there have been more positives than negatives for BN, which finished 2019 with four by-election wins.

It is often said that by-election results do not predict the outcome of the next general election. Nevertheless, they are a bellwether of things to come.

First three by-elections

BN kicked off 2019 on a high note, retaining the Cameron Highlands seat on January 26. Despite its joy being short-lived, with the coalition losing seven MPs to Bersatu on February 12, there were many plus points for BN.

By fielding Semai candidate Ramli Mohd Nor instead of an MIC member in the Cameron Highlands contest, BN showed that it was willing to break the mould and think outside the box.

Choosing to have an independent with no political baggage vie for the parliamentary seat, BN demonstrated that it was willing to sacrifice component party goodwill to beat PH, which had become BN’s top priority.

More than that, Cameron Highlands gave a glimpse of what the Umno-PAS combo was capable of. After all, the two parties have the highest number of members combined, with the BN lynchpin boasting some three million and the Islamist outfit having one million of the most loyal supporters in the country.

The Cameron Highlands polls also marked Najib Razak’s first real return to active politics. Although the former prime minister featured in last year’s Sg Kandis by-election, Umno itself had been unsure about whether it would be a good idea to have the man responsible for BN’s defeat in the 14th general election back in action.

However, there was little doubt that Najib must play a role in Cameron Highlands, as the constituency is in his home state of Pahang.

Najib could even brag that Cameron Highlands voters wanted him in the BN campaign. Unsurprisingly, he was well received, with many Felda settlers remembering him for the high bonuses and oil palm prices they enjoyed under his administration.

With its newfound strength, BN reclaimed Semenyih by reversing an almost 9,000-vote defeat into a 1,914-vote win. There were various reasons PH lost the state seat, among them the PAS factor, which could no longer be ignored.

Before the dust settled in Semenyih, BN was again rocked by news of defections. Umno lost four MPs, two assemblymen and two senators from Sabah to Bersatu, prompting a near shutdown of its state chapter.

But this had little effect on the Rantau by-election, with Umno No. 2 Mohamad Hasan easily defending the seat.

Final by-election

Undeterred by the exodus of 11 parliamentarians, Umno pressed on in its quest to form a new “super-Malay BN” by partnering with PAS.

The two then began chipping away at PH’s fragile Malay support, calling the ruling pact anti-Malay and anti-Islam.

Using examples like cuts to the budget for fishermen and planters and accusing the government of being headed by the Chinese-majority DAP, the new attacks struck a raw nerve with a segment of Malay voters.

As a result, little-known civil society group Gerakan Pembela Ummah’s Buy Muslim First campaign became a hot topic in August. Although it saw limited success, the drive led to a Malay unity convention in August to galvanise the community’s opposition to PH.

PAS and Umno did not officially sanction the campaign to boycott non-Muslim goods and services, but used the opportunity to hold the August 25 convention.

Following the success of their Malay unity push, the two parties began talking about a formal political cooperation. Their friendship needed more than the odd by-election campaign, and it was time to formalise a courtship that began in 2015.

On September 14, they brought their four decades of enmity to a close, with PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang and his Umno counterpart, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, inking a deal in front of thousands of supporters. Umno would no longer be a party of “kafirs”, and PAS no longer a party of villagers.

It was not clear if this had an effect on the Tg Piai by-election, but BN, campaigning with PAS support, galloped to victory in the Johor parliamentary seat on November 16. Its MCA candidate won with a margin of 38.86% after losing the seat in GE14 by 1%.

During the campaign, BN introduced a new twist to its Muafakat Nasional with the Islamists. After securing the Malay vote with the Umno-PAS charter, the pact said it also needed non-Malays to complete its plan to snatch back federal power come GE15.

To top it off, it was former BN chairman and Umno president Najib who grabbed the headlines at a muddy field in Kg Lubok Sawah, Pekan Nanas, where he announced the metamorphosis.

BN may have ended the year 10 MPs short (after losing 11 to Bersatu and regaining Tg Piai), but it has found its way out of the woods.

With PAS on its side, it has secured the Malay vote. Now, the coalition needs only a portion of the non-Malay vote – the last piece of its Putrajaya puzzle.

Judging by the Tg Piai results and uncertainties in PH, the BN-PAS partnership is in a very good position. – December 29, 2019.