PAKATAN Harapan does not appear to have learned its lessons as the ruling coalition heads into the fourth by-election this year after losing in three consecutive polls in recent months.

PH is the favourite to win the next by-election in Sandakan as the parliamentary seat has been a Sabah DAP stronghold for the past two terms.

Despite this, the three previous polls revealed a worrying trend about the ruling coalition.

Analysts who have studied the polls in Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Rantau said PH still lacks a cohesive election machinery compared with Barisan Nasional.

It also struggled to craft a compelling message to get voters out, especially those who voted the coalition in during the 14th general election.

Instead, they said, it prefers to fall back on attacking its rivals – a strategy that is more suited to an opposition party instead of one that is in government.   

PH activists on the campaign trail in Rantau attested to these problems, saying that the coalition’s strategies appeared to be from the same playbook in GE14.

“The problem is that the strategy does not work any more because we are the government. We cannot just be attacking people but we need to explain what we’ve achieved and what we want to do,” said a Selangor PKR activist named Jamal, who campaigned both in Semenyih and Rantau.

The only silver lining for PH is that it lost in areas which have traditionally been BN strongholds, said Kamarul Bahrin Zahid of the think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan.

“BN was successful at getting out all its supporters to the polls in these seats. They were able to maintain the same support levels they received in GE14. But PH hasn’t been able to do the same with its supporters and fence-sitters who voted for them in GE14.”

But this trend can change if the ruling coalition fails to counter the perception that it is not fulfilling its electoral promises, said Kamarul Bahrin.

BN strongholds

The biggest swing in support from PH to BN was detected in the Rantau by-election, where BN increased its support in all 14 of the seat’s voting districts by about 50 to 360 votes.

Analyst Mohd Azlan Zainal of Ilham Centre said the trend among Malay voters in Rantau showed that this community’s support for PH remained “fragile” and inconsistent.

“(PKR president) Anwar Ibrahim was also not effective in increasing Malay support towards PH or getting Indian voters out to support the coalition,” said Azlan, whose outfit polled voters’ sentiments in the by-election.

However, Kamarul Bahrin of IDE argued that much of the swing from PH to BN in Rantau was due to the stature of the latter’s candidate, Mohamad Hasan.

“Rantau has always been Tok Mat’s (Mohamad) stronghold. Before he held the seat in 2004, his brother won it in 1999. Rantau is to Tok Mat, what Pekan is to (ex-prime minister) Najib Razak and Permatang Pauh is to Anwar,” he said, referring to the parliamentary constituencies that have been held by Najib and Anwar’s family.

In Cameron Highlands and Semenyih, the vote swing from BN towards PH was marginal. BN increased its vote share largely thanks to PAS supporters as the two parties are now working together.

Not learning lessons

PH’s weaknesses, said Azlan, appear to have been carried over from all three by-elections.

“PH’s internal problems have not been resolved. Their machinery is still operating separately and they are uncoordinated as a coalition.

“They operate according to their own parties and there’s no streamlining between them. This gives off a vague image for the grassroots,” said Azlan.

While PKR, PH’s component party of which Anwar is president, was dominant, the involvement of the other parties – Bersatu, DAP and Amanah – was minimal, Azlan said.

Just like in the two previous by-elections, PH’s campaign message appeared to consist heavily of attacking BN’s past record of governance instead of talking about what they’ve done.

“Pakatan is too focused on pre-GE14 issues. It does not look like it is campaigning like a government party,” said Azlan.

Jamal said PH was also slow at using communal networks, such as village committees and residents’ associations, to explain its message.

Azlan said PH’s last minute attack of Mohamad in Rantau also backfired.

The third by-election defeat is an urgent wake up call for the ruling coalition, said Azlan, as it needs to show that its policies can translate into real-life changes for ordinary folk, especially when it comes to the economy and cost-of-living issues.  

“This latest result is a referendum on PH’s performance,” said Azlan. – April 17, 2019.