MOHAMAD Hasan’s victory was expected in the Rantau by-election.

What was unexpected was how he managed to convert those who voted for Pakatan Harapan in 14th general election to Barisan Nasional.

The former menteri besar handed PH its worst by-election defeat, where he and BN beat the ruling coalition by 4,510 votes, a majority bigger than when BN won Cameron Highlands (3,238) and Semenyih (1,914).

A tally of the voting trends in all 14 polling districts in the Negri Sembilan state seat showed that Mohamad picked up more votes than BN did in GE14.

Mohamad or Tok Mat, as he is affectionately called by everyone, secured the BN vote and its allied opposition party PAS. He also managed to swing those who voted PH in GE14 to his side.

Mohamad was able to win in four out of five districts which had high percentages of Indians and Chinese – voters who were staunch PH supporters in GE14.

He won Linsum which is 54% non-Malay, Pekan Sagga (80% non-Malay), Rantau (83% non-Malay) and Kuala Sawah (55% non-Malay).

PH activists who canvassed for votes throughout the campaign period attested to Mohamad’s stature, saying how locals spoke of the former menteri besar as a hometown legend, while they struggled to promote their own candidate Dr S. Streram.

Mohamad did not contest in GE14, but BN’s support in Rantau can be extrapolated from the votes it received for the Rembau parliamentary seat.

Rantau along with Paroi, Kota and Chembong, make up the Rembau seat, which is held by Khairy Jamaluddin (BN).

According to a vote tally by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan, Mohamad managed to get 1,633 votes in Sendayan, some 368 more than the combined votes of both BN and PAS in GE14.

In Rantau, where Indians and Chinese made up about 83% of voters, Mohamad received 228 more votes than the combined BN-PAS vote of 933 in GE14.

In Pekan Sagga where Indians and Chinese made up 80% of voters, the total BN-PAS vote was 254 in GE14. Mohamad increased it to 310.

This trend was repeated in all of the 14 polling districts, where Mohamad was able to win between 50 and 300 votes more than the combined PAS-BN total in GE14.

Mohamad bucked the trend of BN’s unpopularity with non-Malays said PH activists as he was a familiar face in these communities.

“Indians told me that Mat Hasan was very popular among the community when he was MB. Whenever he did his rounds in Rantau, he would approach people on the street and ask them about their problems.

“If people said they were facing hard times, he would give them money out of his own pocket. He was very well liked,” said one Selangor PH activist named Jamal.

“And the Indians who told me this were Indians who came to PH ceramah. And when it came to Malays, there were kampung and neighbourhoods we went to that told us point blank Tok Mat doesn’t even have to come here, we will vote for him,” said Jamal.

Mohamad was a three-term menteri besar since 2004 but has represented Rantau since 1999.

Yahya Saari of Institut Darul Ehsan said more than any previous by-election, this one was primarily driven by the incumbent’s stature.

“When we did surveys in all the districts we found that he had an approval rating of 89%. The lowest approval rating he had was 79%. Even if Mohamad had contested in GE14, he would have won hands-down. Other issues in the by-election were insignificant.” – April 14, 2019.