Two-thirds majority for BN more likely now, says political observer

Amin Iskandar Amin Iskandar Updated 8 years ago · Published on 31 Aug 2017 2:00PM · 9 Comments

The opposition, which included PAS at the time under the Pakatan Rakyat banner, had won 52% the popular vote in 2013, with BN winning 47%. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, August 31, 2017.

A TWO-THIRDS majority for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition seems more likely now that Pakatan Harapan has firmly rejected any electoral cooperation with PAS, said political observer Ibrahim Suffian.

The director of polling outfit Merdeka Centre said without a pact between PH and PAS to ensure straight fights, it would be easier for BN to regain the two-thirds hold in Parliament that it first lost in the 2008 general election.

“In view of the fact that BN has a large number of supporters, the opposition will be split into votes for PAS and votes for PH. This will favour BN, even if it wins with a lower percentage of the popular vote.

“If PH and PAS do not have a pact, it’s not impossible for BN to seize a two-thirds majority again, given that it only needs another 15 federal seats from what it has now,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

To regain a two-thirds control, BN needs 148 seats in the Dewan Rakyat. It now has 133 seats, following the 2013 general election, while the opposition has 89.

The opposition, which included PAS at the time under the Pakatan Rakyat banner, had won 52% the popular vote in 2013, with BN winning 47%.

Ibrahim was asked about the PH presidential council’s decision on Monday to reject cooperation with PAS, following a divisive debate within PKR on whether to hold talks with the Islamist party to ensure straight fights, especially in Selangor.

Besides PKR, other parties in the opposition pact are Bersatu, DAP and Amanah.

Ibrahim said the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections last year were indicative of the results of three-cornered fights in the coming polls.

BN candidates had won both federal seats as the votes were split. PAS and Amanah had fielded candidates.

There are different views, however, as to how well PH can survive three-cornered fights.

PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli, who runs survey outfit Invoke, said he believed the party was strong enough to withstand three-cornered fights based on simulations.

A survey by Institut Darul Ehsan, involving 4,486 respondents, did not touch on the number of parliamentary seats that the opposition could gain, but found that if PH and PAS were to join forces, such a pact could control seven states and one federal territory in Peninsular Malaysia. – August 31, 2017.

Sign up or sign in here to comment.

Comments

  • Tell najib to dissolve parliament if you think BN can win..

    Posted 8 years ago by Ali Along · Reply

  • The view by Merdeka Centre political observe is the biggest hog wash and on what basis is the comments coming from . Was there an indepth survey or just selective catergory to lay claim on such unconclusive remarks. It looks more to intent of disbursing distorted facts and self gratification. If he has taken the trouble to go down to the layman and street level observations he will be very dumb founded that many ordinary Muslim Malays who are eking out a daily living with harsh realities of not being readily abled to provide a basic needs for a two weeks sustenance . They are already fed up with Najib UmnoBN and whatmore PAS associations in bringing further miseries. Many in the streets are giving less than two hoots to PAS religious approach to enhance their daily wretched lives let alone the religious boding to reslove their economic woes. Go down and talk to the masses rather than just shooting from the mouth and the self beliefs that the political scenerio will be as what they determined in their writting. The Rakyat has already made up their mind on who is the trouble makers and spoliers and no three cornered fights will change the outcome for the impending change of regime. Yes it is much better to avoid that and go on one to one but with the deeply entrenched disapointment with Najib UmnoBN, come fire or haile stones it shall not detour the masses to right the consequences of many years of abuses. A warrant change is overdue and deemed neccessary irrespective of who the so called political analysts expert comments

    Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

  • Factors influencing the outcome of the two by-elections held a year ago have vastly changed, requiring an entirely different set of assumptions to forecast election outcome.
    There will be massive deflection of PAS’ traditional electoral supporters when the PAS-Umno electoral co-operation, whether covert or overt, eventually becomes household public knowledge as polling day nears. Similarly, there will also be massive cross-over of Umno’s traditional electoral supporters due to the unprecedentedly unfavourable conditions plaguing Umno. The combined migration of Malay votes to the opposition (which does not include PAS) is expected to sink Umno/BN.
    Having PAS as a partner in Harapan is the ideal, but it seems to be a bridge too far, now that polling day may be just around the corner. Harapan must quickly come up with an effective strategy and start enlightening PAS supporters of the latest political realities.
    The current internal squabbling within PKR must stop, and it must join Harapan whole heartedly and march as one united force, now that the alliance has already made its final decision to exclude PAS.

    Posted 8 years ago by Kim quek · Reply

  • GE 14 will be "fun" to watch, especially with three, four, five, six, etc - cornered fights.

    In 2013, Azmin won Gombak with 54,827 votes or 52.0%
    His opponent Raman Ismail of the BN got 50,093 votes or 47.53%
    An independent candidate Said Nazar Abu Baker got a mere 474 votes 0.45%
    Turnout in 2013 was 107,140 electors or 86.90% of registered voters in Gombak

    In 2008, Azmin Ali won with 40,334 votes or 54.65%
    His one-on-one opponent Said Anuar Said Ahmad of the BN got 33,467 votes or the remaining 45.35%
    Azmin got 2.65 fewer percentage points of votes in 2013 than in 2008.
    Turnout in 2008 was 75,619 voters or 76.26% of registered voters.

    Going back further to 2004, the BN's Raman Ismail got 39,870 votes 59.93%
    His one-on-one opponent Mohd Hatta Md. Ramli of PAS got 26,663 votes or 40.07%
    Turnout in 2004 was 67,358 voters or 73.04 of registered voters.

    We can expect the number of registered voters in Gombak to have increased somewhat by GE14 and assuming that in a two-cornered fight between PKR and BN, PKR gets 60,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, so Azmin of PKR retains the seat.

    However, in a three-cornered fight in Gombak between PKR, BN and PAS, PAS gets say 27,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, that would leave PKR with 33,000 votes (60,000 - 27,000 votes), so BN wins with the largest minority of votes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gombak_(federal_constituency)

    A similar situation actually hapepned in the Kota Damansara state seat in 2013.

    In 2008, Dr. Mohd Nasir Hashim of Parti Sosialis Malaysia running under a PKR ticket got 11,846 votes or 52.38%
    His one-on-one opponent Zein Isma Ismail of the BN got 10,771 votes or 47.62%
    So Dr. Nasir won Kota Damansara

    In 2013, in a six-cornered fight, Halimaton Saadiah Bohan of the BN got 16,387 votes or 42.27%
    Still contesting under the PKR ticket, Dr. Nasir got 14,860 votes or 38.33%
    PAS entered the fray with Ridzuan Ismail who got 7,312 votes of 18.86%
    Independent candidate Halmi Omar got 116 votes or 0.30%
    Independent candidate Edros Abdullah got 57 votes or 0.15%
    Independent candidate Suppiah Anandan got 39 votes or 0.10%

    BN won Kota Damansara with the largest minority of 42.27%

    Going back to 2004 when BN stood head-on-head with PAS,
    Mohd Mokhtar Ahmad Dahlan of the BN got 12,926 votes or 72.81%
    Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof of PAS got 4,827 votes or 27.19%
    BN won of course.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Damansara_(state_constituency)

    When PAS was part of Pakatan, PAS loyalists would vote for the PKR or DAP candidate where no PAS candidate stood but now that PAS loyalists are split between PAS and PAN, PAS' former vote could be about halved in a contest involving PAS and PAN (a.k.a. Amanah), such as happened in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar byelections in which BN retained the two seats with a slim majority of votes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sungai_Besar_(federal_constituency)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Kangsar_(federal_constituency)

    GE 14 will be more interesting, with PAS' exit from Pakatan, then the split in PAS into PAS and PAN, with PAN joining Pakatan, then with the formation of Pribumi by ex-UMNO people, then Pribumi joining Pakatan.

    Now PAS can split the Pakatan vote, PAN will split the PAS vote as it did in the above two byelections and Pribumi can split the UMNO vote.

    So what happens if BN wins the largest minority of seats in parliament. Can it rule as a minority government or will it have to find a party with enough seats to form a coalition government with a simple majority of seats?

    Posted 8 years ago by IT Scheiss · Reply

    • " ..... Can it rule as a minority government or will it have to find a party with enough seats to form a coalition government with a simple majority of seats? ......" - ................. Maybe but not necessarily a whole party; just enough individual MPs. BN+PAS? BN+Azmin and gang? BN+Bersatu (ex-UMNO) "kataks" ...... with inducements of combinations of "hudud", ministerial posts and money?

      Posted 8 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

  • Something I overlooked in the above post is that just as PKR won certain seats with the help of votes of PAS supporters in one-on-one fights when PAS was part of the Pakatan and PAS could also have won certain seats with the help of the votes of PKR supporters. So now in three-cornered fights, between UMNO/BN, PKR and PAS, PAS could lose some seats which it currently holds and PKR could also lose some seats which it currently holds. However, the question remains as to which of the candidates will get at least the largest minority of seats (i.e. with under 50% of the vote in the constituency contested and thus win the seat. Likewise, in a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, Pribumi and PAS, the Pribumi candidate could draw away votes from UMNO/BN, though who would get the most votes, even the largest minority remains to be seen. In a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, PAN and PAS, it looks almost certain that UMNO/BN will win, unless there is so much dissatisfaction with UMNO/BN over issues such as the rising cost of living, that either PAS or PAN wins the seat.

    Posted 8 years ago by IT Scheiss · Reply

    • "... In a three-cornered fight between UMNO/BN, PAN and PAS, it looks almost certain that UMNO/BN will win ....." - ...... Are you predicting the the fall Kelantan to BN? Careful, Hadi is not in good health.

      Posted 8 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

  • IF WE ARE TO BE DAMNED, LET US BE DAMNED FOR WHO WE ARE AND NOT WHAT WE PRETEND TO BE. There is no doubt, after GE14, we will go down a hellhole but if so, let us decide now. Lets stop these pretending we call "tolerance" and "moderation" while the country is being destroyed inside out.

    Posted 8 years ago by Bigjoe Lam · Reply

    • The coming elections will see not the opposition strength and capabilities or even UmnoBN must win by conniving act BUT more towards a Colossal Tsunami of People Disgrunted Sentiments for a change. A sentiment of peremptory change for a new Malaysia is now ganing momentum.

      Posted 8 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply