OPPOSITION parties can control seven states and one federal territory in Peninsular Malaysia and gain 59% of the national popular vote if all of them contest as one coalition in straight fights against Barisan National in the 14th general election, a survey by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) has revealed. 

The “Mood of the Nation Ahead of GE14” survey indicated that a coalition of Pakatan Harapan – which comprises Bersatu, PKR, DAP and Amanah – and the Islamist PAS would allow the opposition parties to collectively retain Selangor, Penang and Kelantan.

A cohesive opposition would also change the government in Kedah, Perak, Pahang and Malacca, and capture the Federal Territory.

“This is the mood of Malaysians today. Only 39% support Barisan Nasional.

“And Barisan Nasional will lose its two-thirds majority in the almost all remaining states,” IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said while presenting the results of the survey that was conducted from August 11 to 15. 

The survey, which involved 4,486 respondents, asked which party they would vote for if GE14 was held six months from now. 

The previous general election in 2013 saw the now defunct opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat win 52% of the popular vote against 47% by BN. 

“If you obtain 52% of the popular vote you are still not secure, like what happened in Perak.

“But in the Malaysian context, if you get more than 58% you are secure. It is beyond reach and this is what happened in Selangor in the last general election when Pakatan obtained 58%.”

Redzuan added that there are two possibilities as to when Parliament will be dissolved – either after the Sea Games or a split in the opposition coalition.

“When will Najib call for elections? There will be two situations, the mood after the Sea Games, especially when Malaysia face Thailand in the final of football game. 

“Or when the opposition is split. If these two situations happen, it will be the best time to hold a general election. No need to wait until next year.”

The survey, which covers 130 parliamentary seats in the peninsula, also found that 50% of respondents have already decided which political party to vote for, 22% after nomination, 9% a week before elections and another 19% on election day. 

Voters aged between 21 and 30 are mostly undecided on who to vote.

When asked about the economic outlook in the next two years, only 8% of respondents felt that the situation would improve. Rising cost of living, prices of goods, unemployment and poverty remain the top concerns for respondents. – August 28, 2017.