DR Mahathir Mohamad can still draw a crowd but some 20,000 turned up in Kubang Pasu two months ago, more than 13 years after he stepped down as the MP in the Kedah rice-bowl district.

The enthusiastic and strong reception for the 92-year-old and his two strongmen – sacked Kedah menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir and sacked deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin has given Dr Mahathir’s Bersatu a boost of confidence that Kedah will fall to the opposition pact Pakatan Harapan in GE14.

Opposition politicians and analysts said the groundswell over Mukhriz’s sacking and Dr Mahathir’s return to active politics last year will prove fatal to Barisan Nasional (BN), which won the state from PAS in the 2013 general election although PAS believes three-cornered fights will benefit the ruling coalition.

Kedah PKR chairman Dr Azman Ismail said Prime Minister Najib Razak’s decision to sack Mukhriz last year, Dr Mahathir’s youngest son, sparked off a wave of discontent towards the state BN.

“Sacking Mukhriz as Kedah MB was the early factor, and now with Dr Mahathir appointed as PH chairman, it is a huge advantage for us in Kedah,” Azman told The Malaysian Insight.

Kedah Amanah chairman Dr Ismail Salleh said cooperation among the PH parties can ride on the dislike for BN.

“I admit that Amanah is not strong enough because we are a new party, PKR is not strong, Bersatu is also not strong and neither is DAP. But when we work together, we are confident we will win,” said Ismail.

The political cooperation can be seen in rural areas near the state capital, Alor Star, where flags of the PH component parties, namely Amanah and Bersatu, fly together alongside BN and PAS flags, signalling what many believe will be a very close fight in the next elections.

Also in Kubang Pasu, which is now held by Umno’s Mohd Johari Baharum, the deputy defence minister and top Najib lieutenant.

Winds of change

Political analysts said Kedah will prove to be a close fight in the 14^th general election, with many traditional Umno voters expected to throw their support behind Bersatu.

Hisomuddin Bakar, executive director of Ilham Centre, said studies conducted by his research house show that areas like Kubang Pasu, Jerlun and Langkawi are likely to fall to Bersatu.

“When I went back recently for Hari Raya, Bersatu flags filled the entire area of Pida in Jerlun,” said the Kedah native.

He also noted the high number of Umno branches, which changed to Bersatu branches in these areas.

“During the reformasi movement, no Umno branch changed to PAS branch, but now we see Umno branches being turned into Bersatu branches.”

He said Amanah, DAP and PKR will do well in Kuala Kedah, Alor Star, Pokok and Sg Petani, whereas BN is likely to maintain its hold on areas, such as Padang Terap, Baling and Sik.

Grassroots leaders in PH said while support for PAS from rural voters in Kedah was traditionally strong, there has been evidence of an erosion of support in the past year.

“With what had happened (the PH leadership line-up), we are confident of winning all four seats (one parliamentary and three state seats) in Kuala Kedah,” said Kuala Kedah Bersatu deputy chief Maj (rtd) Samad Mohd Noh.

In Tandop, Kuala Kedah, one PAS division has been shut down and one of its key outposts at Pusat Asuhan Tunas Islam (Pasti) has already been taken over by Amanah.

BN will be victors, claims PAS

But PAS has warned that a three-cornered fight will ultimately deliver the state into BN’s hands as it will contest in all 36 state seats and 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah in GE14.

A former senior state administrator during PAS’ rule from 2008 to 2013 told The Malaysian Insight that PAS would likely be the biggest losers in such a situation.

“In the last two elections, PAS won many seats in Chinese-majority areas. When the Chinese stop supporting PAS, we will lose at least six of the eight state seats we currently hold,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

He said the chances of avoiding three-cornered fights were growing slim, with the formalisation of PH last week.

“In a three-cornered fight in Kedah, or even nationwide, PAS’ chances and even the opposition’s, is slim. BN will likely emerge the winner.” – July 20, 2017.