THE call by 143 Umno divisions to contest all its seats in the next general election will strengthen the party’s resolve to not work with Bersatu in the next elections, said analysts.

The Umno Supreme Council, when it meets tomorrow, cannot ignore the calls by these divisions, which are the bulk of the party’s total of 191 divisions, they said.

“What’s left to be seen is whether the Supreme Council will come out with a strong decision immediately, or leave it to the party’s general assembly at the end of the month,” said Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali.

After Umno divisions completed their annual meetings over the weekend, 143 passed resolutions urging the party leadership to contest all its seats and reject any political cooperation with Bersatu in the 15th general election, which must be held by September 2023.

However, the divisions want snap elections to be held in the first quarter of this year. One division, Gua Musang, which is led by Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, said all Umno MPs must withdraw their support for the Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) government if snap polls are not held.

During GE14 in 2018, Umno contested 121 of the 222 parliamentary seats in Dewan Rakyat, winning 54. It also lost federal power for the first time. In GE13, Umno won 88 seats. 

But following its defeat in 2018, 15 Umno MPs defected from the party and joined Bersatu, reducing the party to just 39 (38 now after the death of Grik MP Hasbullah Osman) MPs. 

Ilham Centre director Hisommudin Bakar is also expecting the Supreme Council to use the divisions’ resolutions last weekend to back its decision to end all cooperation with Bersatu.

He said recent comments by Umno’s leaders already set the tone for last weekend’s division meetings.

In the run-up to Umno’s division AGMs last weekend, former president Najib Razak urged the party to put Umno’s interest ahead and decide on its future. 

At the same time, Umno Youth chief Dr Aysraf Wajdi Dusuki also voiced his unhappiness with Bersatu, which he alleged was trying to undermine Umno by “buying” its members.

Hisommudin said Umno wants to be the dominant Malay party and has to cut ties with Bersatu which it suspects is undermining the party.

“The party is also aware of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s rising popularity due to his populist politics and know that they have to stop it now before it’s too late,” said the pollster.

Can Umno go solo?

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Dr Kamarul Zaman Yusoff, who said he would be watching the Umno Supreme Council closely, believes that the weekend attacks against Bersatu are crafted to appear that the demand to cut ties with Bersatu comes from the grassroots.

“The idea may not have originated from the ground nor does it reflect the sentiments on the ground as the Umno divisions just do what they are directed to do by the top leaders,” said the political science lecturer.

But regardless of how it took place, Kamarul said Umno is treading on dangerous ground as its own unity is at stake, since not all leaders feel the same way about Bersatu.

Among those against ending ties with Bersatu and PAS is former secretary-general and Federal Territories Minister Annuar Musa, who said Umno stands to lose if its ends its relationship with PN.

For Kamarul, the big question is whether Umno can win in GE15 on its own.

“Umno will again be fragmented further with the expected exodus of some of its prominent leaders and their followers from the party, most probably into Bersatu and it will have to fight the power-crazy public image due to its insistence on holding snap elections at the soonest despite the prevalence of Covid-19 cases.

“Umno will also have to fight the perception that it is greedy, particularly among the Malay-Muslim voters, after toppling a Malay-Muslim government,” said Kamarul.

He said it will worsen if Umno tries to form a new government after toppling PN by collaborating with PKR, DAP and Amanah, as the party will lose its hardcore voters and supporters.

But for now, Kamarul said Bersatu will have to wait and see before acting as Umno appears to have made up its mind.

“The only thing Bersatu can do is to make sure that PAS is still solid with them to brighten their chance at defeating Umno.” – January 5, 2021.