LOW voter turnout and rural anger towards the incumbent Warisan Plus government were among key factors that caused it to lose Sabah to Gabungan Parti Sabah (GRS) in yesterday’s polls.

GRS, which is made up of three political groupings, also had a better ground game and a more aggressive machinery, especially in the region’s sprawling rural areas, said analysts.

As of press time, GRS has a simple majority when it captured 38 out of 73 state seats, enabling it to form a government.

GRS is composed of Perikatan Nasional, headed by prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, Sabah Barisan Nasional, dominated by Sabah Umno, and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS).

Warisan Plus consists of Warisan, led by caretaker chief minister Mohd Shafie Apdal, PKR, DAP and local multiracial party Upko.

An analysis of last night’s results revealed that GRS was able to keep about 20 of its safe seats such as Sulaman, Sook, Karanaan and Lumadan and even increase its winning majorities there.

But what tipped the scales in GRS’ favour was its ability to win most of the 31 to 33 seats that pollsters such as Ilham Centre had classified as “50-50” – seats that each coalition had a fair chance of winning.

“GRS was able to score big in the 50-50 seats while young voters who had helped Warisan Plus win in GE14 did not come out,” said Ilham Centre’s Hisomuddin Bakar.

The 50-50 constituencies were ones that were won with less than a 2,000-vote majority in the 14th general election and included Banggi, Bongawan, Petagas, Kiulu, Melalap, Kemabong, Sugut, Gum Gum, Kunak and Balung.

GRS component parties also managed to increase its hold on seats where the Kadazandusun-Murut community form a significant voting bloc and displaced its Warisan Plus rival, Upko, in three of these seats – Nabawan, Kuala Penyu and Kadamaian.

Upko had also lost Kuamut to independent candidate Masiung Banah.

GRS had also managed to snare more than half of the 13 new seats, which are Bangkoka, Pantai Dalit, Telupid, Tulid, Lamag, Tanjung Keramat, Sg Manila.

On the other side, Warisan Plus had lost seats which it had secured in GE14 such as Liawan and Pantai Manis, which reflected an erosion of support.

Political scientist Prof Bridget Welsh said the fear of contracting Covid-19 had led to low voter turnout especially among outstation Sabahans who work in the peninsula.

Statements from Segama candidate Mohamaddin Ketapi and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim had also broken Warisan Plus’ campaign momentum, said Welsh.

Shafie, who is Warisan Plus chief, had to personally apologise for Mohamaddin, who called the 2013 Lahad Datu incursion by Filipino militants a farce.

The remark had potentially slighted the police and armed forces as well as Sabahans living on the east coast.

“Poor economic delivery on part of Warisan, including the Covid-19 aid, made a difference,” said Welsh.

The Malaysian Insight’s own interviews with rural Sabahans found that most were upset about not receiving RM300 in cash aid that had initially been promised by the Warisan government.

Voters also felt that the region’s economy had come to a standstill after Warisan took over after GE14 in May, while GRS showed that growth had plunged in the 26 months Warisan was in charge.

“The Warisan alliance is weak on the ground, generally weak in many rural areas. BN-PN has a better ground strategy, better machinery and went all out,” Welsh added.

Preliminary observations suggest that female and low-income voters had swung away from Warisan Plus while support from the Kadazandusun-Murut community remained stagnant, she said.

“Muslim bumiputera voters tended to support GRS parties. From the beginning this was a close race and it was never in Warisan’s hands.” – September 27, 2020.