THE 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak could deliver a painful multibillion-dollar hit to Australian universities as high-paying Chinese students are forced to defer their studies, economists warned today.

Top varsities stand to lose around A$3 billion (RM8.4 billion) in fees alone, according to preliminary estimates from analysts at Standard & Poor’s.

Under open-ended travel restrictions imposed by the government in a bid to prevent the spread of the virus, non-Australian citizens or permanent residents who have been in China since Saturday are not allowed into Australia.

The outbreak began in between Australia’s academic years – which begin in February – and as many of the country’s roughly 165,000 Chinese university students returned home for the Lunar New Year.

“Our calculation is one of higher education fee revenues only, and excludes the broader economic contribution from students to accommodation, tourism, and the domestic consumption of goods and services,” said S&P in a report.

Foreign students are a vital income stream for Australian universities, and one that has grown exponentially in recent years.

Australia is now one of the top three destinations for foreign students worldwide.

Student representatives told AFP that many have not been able to return in time to start this semester, and fear missing the whole year because of the way courses are constructed.

Universities have offered to defer placements and reimburse tuition fees, but many are also trying to buy time.

University of Sydney has extended the last date students have to be on campus to March 30 – more than a month after classes were due to begin – and is trying to arrange for remote teaching.

The nation’s top varsities are expected to be disproportionately hit, but they should be able to absorb the blow, at least temporarily.

“We believe they have some buffer in free cash, leverage and operating-margin ratios to absorb a temporary shock to revenues,” said S&P. – AFP, February 6, 2020.