PROTEST votes for Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional are expected to be a crucial factor in the Tg Piai by-election on November 16, said a think-tank which recently surveyed voters.

Institut Darul Ehsan senior manager Kamarulbahrin Zahid told The Malaysian Insight protest votes could come from PH’s Chinese supporters upset over the government’s handling of vernacular education issues.

The protest would likely manifest as a low voter turnout as the core supporters of both sides withhold their votes, he said.

This scenario is in contradiction to the prevailing belief, especially among BN supporters, that the opposition has a high chance of retaking Tg Piai.

Since its creation in a 2003 redrawing of electoral borders until the last election, the seat has been a BN stronghold. In May last year, MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng received 20,731 votes to lose the seat to the PH candidate by a mere 524 votes. More than 2,000 votes went to the third contender from PAS. 

With PAS not only out of the equation but batting for BN as Umno’s official partner this time around, the opposition is confident of winning back the seat with the votes from the Islamist party’s supporters.

“But if BN fields a non-Muslim candidate, PAS and Umno members will be in a dilemma because they have endorsed the ‘Buy Muslim First’ campaign,” Kamarulbahrin said.

“How are they going to tell their members to vote for an MCA candidate who is non-Muslim?”

But if BN fields a candidate from Umno, MCA members will likely resent the loss of what it regards as its turf, he said.

Gerakan no threat 

Also, Gerakan is fielding its deputy secretary-general, Wendy Subramaniam, to make the Tg Piai by-election a three-cornered fight for PH and BN candidates, Tg Piai Bersatu division chief Karmaine Sardini and Wee, respectively.

In the first election in 2004, Tg Piai was captured by former MCA president Ong Ka Ting, who in the next election stepped aside for his party colleague Wee, who won the seat in 2008 and again in 2013.

“Tg Piai is a BN stronghold but with these factors coming into play we cannot simply say that BN will win it. It is still a close fight.”

About 57% of Tg Piai’s 52,986 voters are Malay, 42% Chinese and the remainder, Indian.

Kamarulbahrin said Wendy is unlikely to be a threat to either PH or BN.

“Gerakan does not have a strong machinery in the area, whereas MCA and Umno do. PH also has a proven service record in the area, thanks to its late MP, Md Farid Md Rafik.

“She is unlikely to steal many votes from PH’s Chinese base.”

IDE’s survey results tally with the opinions of analysts who believe Chinese voters are unhappy with PH over its attempt to introduce Jawi in vernacular schools and its failure to recognise the Chinese school’s Unified Exam Certificate as promised.

“PH’s Chinese supporters who are upset are unlikely to vote for the opposition. They are far more likely to not turn out to vote.”

In GE14, PH secured 65% of the Chinese vote and 32% of the Malay vote, according to IDE’s analysis.

For PH to win, it has to maintain Chinese support and increase its Malay support to 35%, said Kamarulbahrin.  

“BN’s victory depends on how it settles the dispute between MCA and Umno. Because both parties have stated that they want to contest the seat.” – October 31, 2019.