FROM the word go, Barisan Nasional’s strategy was simple. 

It needed to maintain its votes while converting PAS’ green votes into blue and hope for a lower turnout from non-Malays.

And it did just that by winning 18 out of 24 voting stations. In GE14, BN only managed to win 11.

In Kantan Permai for instance, BN doubled its tally from 1,052 to 2,106 after taking PAS’ 1,026 votes (GE14) while Pakatan Harapan failed to maintain the 2,654 votes it won last year. In the by-election, PH could only muster 1,622, a drop of more than 1,000 votes.

The same happened in Bandar Tasik Kesuma, where BN polled 1,737 votes after taking PAS’ 614 votes. In GE14, BN only had 1,102 votes. 

This was repeated in the Bukit Mahkota, Beranang and Semenyih Barat polling stations where the total of PAS and BN votes from GE14 almost equalled the by-election results.

Among them, Semenyih Barat looked the worse off for PH as it not only saw PAS votes transfer to BN, but those who voted for them shifted to the opposition.

During GE14, PH had 2,386 votes but could only win 1,102 yesterday while BN went from 892 to 1,671, more than the additional 331 votes from PAS.

Think-tank Ilham Centre earlier predicted that 84% of PAS supporters would vote BN.

This also marked the first time PH lost a seat it won in GE14 after several by-elections. BN retained Cameron Highlands prior to the Semenyih by-election.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the PAS-Umno cooperation worked beautifully in this by-election.

“Despite Pakatan’s revelations about PAS receiving RM90 million from Umno ahead of GE14, its members chose to vote BN,” said the Malay studies lecturer. 

Instead of turning off PAS voters, the RM90 million issue angered the Islamist party members to the point they were willing to don BN shirts during the campaign, said Awang Azman.

Other statements concerning the bloated civil service, ICERD, the handling of the Seafield temple issue and lowering the budget given to rural Malays galvanised support for the opposition, he added.

“This is also a warning for Pakatan to fulfil its election promises. Pakatan’s win last May has taught voters about the power of their vote and any government must now heed this lesson,” said the Umcedel director.

Did BN win or PH lose Semenyih?

But the silver lining for PH, said political analyst Kamarul Bahrin Zahid, is that according to an early review of the results, BN and PAS were not able to increase their support levels by much – those who voted for the latter, were the roughly same as in GE14.

This conclusion is important, said Kamarul of Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE), as throughout the two week by-election campaign, BN and PAS repeatedly pushed the narrative that Malay voters regretted the choice they made in GE14.

BN and PAS said these fed-up voters would come out and vote against PH.

“I do not see that narrative playing out at all. BN won because it managed to get 100% of its old supporters out as well as a majority of PAS members. Pakatan could only get three-fourths of their voters to come out,” said Kamarul.

“Pakatan failed to win over Malay voters who, in the past, supported it. This sealed PH’s fate.”

Lower non-Malay turnout

While PH managed to retain six voting stations, three of which were Chinese-majority stations, the lower turnout was evident.

While the difference in the 99% non-Malay station of Tarun was just 34 votes, the numbers in Kg Baru Semenyih (89%) and Pekan Semenyih (57%) were stark as PH was short of 450 and 290 votes respectively.

Similar to three other by-elections in Selangor (Sg Kandis, Sri Setia and Balakong), the Chinese looked to have the lowest turnouts.

Ahead of the elections, another IDE analyst Khairul Ariffin warned that Chinese turnout could be low due to lower interest following the general election last year.

But come what may, this marks the first time the PAS-Umno pact has worked in a semi-urban seat.

And it looks set to continue to the next by-election in Rantau. – March 3, 2019.