THE Malay votes are up for grabs in the next elections and Pakatan Harapan must not get distracted by the possibility of an Umno-PAS alliance amid claims that 60% of Malay voters are unhappy with the ruling pact, said DAP’s Ong Kian Ming.

The results of the five by-elections since GE14 are a better indicator of what the battle for the Malay vote will look like at GE15, said the Bangi MP, while warning PH not to turn into “BN 2.0” in a bid to snare more Malay votes.

“Using PH’s Malay vote share to understand the results of GE14 and more importantly, as a lens to look ahead to GE15, is an erroneous framework,” Ong said, referring to polling expert Merdeka Centre’s analysis that PH’s share of the Malay vote in GE14 at between 25%-30%, Barisan Nasional (35%-40%) and PAS (30%-33%).

Against this backdrop, PH needs to put in place “a systematic plan to win the Malay vote, one step at a time”.

The pact must also not forget the battle for the Bumiputera vote in Sabah and Sarawak – two important vote banks which Umno and PAS seem to have forgotten, he said in a statement yesterday.

In GE14, with the then opposition being split into two – PH and PAS – BN lost at least 20% of its Malay support (from 65% in GE13 to below 45% in GE14).

“Malay voters were mostly voting to choose between keeping the kleptocratic Najib Razak-led BN regime or getting rid of this regime.”

Ong said his own estimates show that BN won about 44% of the Malay vote in the peninsula in GE14, PAS (32%) and PH (24%).

Should the Umno-PAS pact materialise at GE15 and both agree to one-on-one fights against PH, he said, it is still a mistake to assume that PH’s share of the Malay vote will remain at about 25% while all of PAS’ Malay support will go to Umno and vice-versa.

The five by-elections after GE14 last May show no clear and discernible pattern in PH’s Malay support, he said.

It increased the Malay votes by 12% in the Malay-majority Sg Kandis state seat and 35% (from 34% to 69%) in the Chinese-majority Balakong state seat.

There was a drop in the Seri Setia state seat of 11.2% from 49.5% to 38.4% and in the Port Dickson by-election, prime-minister-in-waiting Anwar Ibrahim won against a crowded field by increasing PH’s Malay vote by 18.5% from 29.4% to 47.9%.

Finally, in the recent Cameron Highlands by-election, PH increased its Malay support by a mere 1% when faced with a Orang Asli candidate from BN.

In the upcoming Semenyih by-election in Selangor, pressure will be on PH to increase its share of the Malay vote from the 36.7% it snared in GE14.

What the five results show is that no party can assume that PAS’s Malay support will go to BN in a head-to-head fight with PH or PAS’ support from anti-BN supporters will go to PH.

A better gauge the political prospects for PH and Umno-PAS will be the Sarawak elections which must be held by 2021.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will fight tooth and nail against PH to maintain control of the state government while Umno and PAS will have to find a new campaign narrative or remain politically irrelevant in the largest state in Malaysia, Ong said.

Whatever the outcome, he said, PH should not try to win Malay support by becoming BN 2.0. Pro-rakyat and targeted policies which benefit the B40, he said, is a better bet to increase Malay support for PH. – February 7, 2019.