AZMAN Mohd Sidek remembers Pakatan Harapan’s Mohd Zawawi Ahmad Mughni as a well-liked young man who used to ride a “kapcai”, or motorcycle, to his burger stall on Jalan Kebun.

The 50-year-old Azman also has fond memories of Zawawi’s father, who was a local qadi and imam at the An Naim mosque across the road.

“Zawawi will surely win this by-election,” said the third-generation Javanese when asked what he thought would be the outcome of tomorrow’s polls.

“People here know him and his father and both are equally popular here.

“His father officiated many of the marriages here, too,” said Azman.

Local v national issues

Zawawi faces a three-cornered fight in the Sg Kandis state seat, but his fiercest competition will come from Barisan Nasional candidate Lokman Noor Adam.

While Zawawi’s campaign has revolved around local issues, such as building better infrastructure and stopping illegal dumping, Lokman has focused on race and religious issues.

In the past 12 days, both parties have mainly campaigned around the Jalan Kebun and Sg Kandis areas which house around 22,000 Malay voters. The Sg Kandis electorate consists of 72% Malays, Indians (16%) and Chinese (12%).

The PH ceramah are mostly held here, with sporadic ventures into the Taman Sri Andalas area, which has more non-Malay voters.

During the May 9 general election, Mat Shuhaimie Shafiei (PKR) won 19 out of the 20 polling centres against Kamaruzzaman Johari (BN), Mohd Yusof Abdullah (PAS) and Hanafiah Husin (PRM).

While the mood seems more subdued compared with GE14, both PH and BN have been attempting to shore up their support by bringing in big-name speakers.

On the PH side, Deputy Prime Minister Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Selangor Menteri Besar Amiruddin Shari and ministers Azmin Ali, Dr Xavier Jayakumar, Mohamad Sabu and Baru Bian and PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim have all turned up to woo Sg Kandis voters.

BN has also fielded top guns, such as Umno president Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former prime minister Najib Razak.

While PH rallies have attracted a more multiracial crowd, BN’s events and intense campaigning appear to appeal only to its own supporters.

Winners and losers

While Zawawi is a clear favourite, analysts believe that Umno could possibly claim its own victory if it succeeds in increasing its vote count from GE14.

International Islamic University political science lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said the stakes appear lower for this by-election as its outcome won’t change the make-up of the Selangor assembly.

In the last elections, Pakatan won 51 out of the 56-seat state assembly.

“The only interesting point will be to see how successful the unwritten pact between PAS and Umno will be,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

PAS had announced it would not compete in the by-election to pave the way for a straight fight between BN and PH.

And although it had said it will not campaign alongside Umno, the Islamist party has tacitly told its supporters not to support Zawawi.

Tunku Mohar, who is expecting a lower voter turnout because of election fatigue, said Umno could consider itself successful if it could win the PAS votes.

In the last elections, BN won 11,518 votes while PAS obtained 7,573.

“If they can break the 18,000-vote mark (albeit at a lower turnout), it would mean the PAS voters have gone to them,” said Tunku Mohar.

“And in the unlikely event that Umno wins, it means that the Malay voters may be moving right,” he added.

And BN will be banking on its loyal supporters like 70-year-old ustazah Siti Rukiah, who said she knew Zawawi and his siblings who went to Sekolah Rendah Agama Jalan Kebun where she was a teacher.

“Although, I didn’t teach Zawawi, I taught his siblings. I also know about his work as an imam and ustaz,” said the retired teacher.

“But I have always voted for BN and that won’t change for me. The issues or candidates don’t matter to me,” said Siti. – August 3, 2018.