THE first by-election after the 14th general election could answer a host of questions on the direction of the Malay vote in the next five years, said political analysts.

Will the new Umno leadership be able to galvanise its support base or will the dirty linen aired about Najib Razak paralyse the party machinery?

Will Malay support for Pakatan Harapan spike now that Dr Mahathir Mohamad and comrades hold the reins of power in Putrajaya?

Although the outcome of the Sg Kandis by-election will not affect the Selangor government, it could be a bellwether on whether Umno can still hold on to its Malay support base.

The Sg Kandis by-election is expected to be called within the next two months after assemblyman Shuhaimie Shafiei from PKR died of cancer at 50 on Monday.

The Election Commission is set to meet next Monday to set the nomination and polling dates.

In the last elections, Shuhaimie (23,998) defeated Barisan Nasional’s Kamaruzzaman Johari (11,518) by 12,480 votes and PAS’ Mohd Yusof Abdullah (7,573). PRM’s Hanafiah Husin only had 76 votes.

“The by-election will not be a challenge to the Selangor government but it is a test for Umno that has a new leadership,” said Ilham Centre director Hisomuddin Bakar.

Over the weekend, Umno elected former deputy prime minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as its new president over challengers Khairy Jamaluddin and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Penang Institute political analyst Dr Wong Chin Huat said the by-election will also be a test to see if Umno can hold on to its Malay support. 

“Umno will see decreasing support because Najib’s (former Umno president Najib Razak) scandal has been exposed after the elections.

“The recent elections also indicate that there are less prospects of reform and revival after the party elected more conservative leaders,” said Wong. 

He added that yesterday’s charging of Najib will only confirm what many voters already suspected. 

Najib was charged with three counts of criminal breach of trust and one count of using his position to benefit himself in the probe into 1Malaysia Development Bhd. 

The charges concern the RM42 million transferred from SRC International Sdn Bhd into Najib’s bank accounts. 

Since the elections, Barisan Nasional, which now consists mainly of Umno, has said Pakatan Harapan won because of mainly non-Malay support.

On Saturday, Najib also said Malays cannot rely on PH to defend them.

The strength of their Malay parties (Bersatu and Amanah) come from non-Malays,” Najib said.

The outcome of the by-election could also indicate where Malay support will go post-GE14, said International Islamic University’s Prof Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mokhtar.

“Sg Kandis, formerly Sri Andalas, became a Malay-majority seat after the re-delineation exercise this year. It was designed for Umno but it didn’t pan out.

“In view of the current situation where PH has a stronger state government, will the voters go with the flow or want a stronger opposition in the state?” said Tunku Mohar.

The Sg Kandis seat is made up of 70% Malay, Indian (16%) and Chinese (12%) voters.

In the last elections, PH won 51 out of the 56 seats in the state assembly. The remaining seats went to BN (4) and PAS (1).

Unofficial tally indicates that PH grabbed 63.4% of the popular vote in the state compared with BN (21.9%) and PAS (14.4%).

PAS’ position

The by-election will also be a test of whether the new Umno leadership can forge a partnership with PAS.

“Given that both sides had fewer votes than the Pakatan candidate, some sort of cooperation between Umno and PAS is needed.

“As such, this by-election will show PAS’ position on whether to continue its three-cornered strategy or compromise with Umno to send one candidate to face Pakatan,” said Hisomuddin. 

Wong doesn’t think there will be a straight fight in Sg Kandis as neither Umno nor PAS can afford to back down.

“Zahid needs to put up a good fight to prove his relevance while PAS also needs to signal their purpose in the west coast. But if they do, the vote may converge on one opposition candidate,” said Wong.

At GE14, despite facing the possibility of a wipe-out, PAS created more multi-cornered contests by fielding candidates in 158 federal and 393 state seats.

PAS won 18 parliamentary seats and 90 state seats in the Malay-majority states, such as Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. 

In Selangor, PAS could only defend one out of the 13 state seats it won in GE13. – July 5, 2018.