THERE’S nothing to stop Bersatu from coming to Sarawak but Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his party should first learn a thing or two from their Pakatan Harapan allies, PKR, on what’s it is like to set up base in the state, political watchers in the said.

Political analyst Jeniri Amir said the logistics in Sarawak was vastly different from that in the Peninsular.

“It’s not that easy (branching to Sarawak),” the political analyst said. The Universiti of Malaysia Sarawak academic said it took PKR almost 19 years before it could snare any parliamentary seats.

PKR, which made its electoral debut in the state in the 1999 general election, has also yet to win a single Malay seat.

To magnify the difficulty of its struggle, former PKR Sarawak deputy chairman Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh relinquished his post to take responsibility for the party’s failure to win a single Malay seat in the 2011 state election.

He was commenting on Bersatu chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s statement that party is planning to venture into Sarawak politics as “all Pakatan Harapan parties were already in Sarawak”.

“There was no reason for Bersatu not to follow suit,” the prime minister had said.

Jeniri said the field in the fight for the Malay votes is also getting increasingly crowded as apart from Bersatu, a new Malay party, Parti Sedar Rakyat Sarawak, is hoping to join the fray in the 2021 state election.

Sedar or Sarawak Peoples’ Awareness Party in English, reportedly has links to PKR.

With Bersatu planning to come, there is a general feeling that Umno could also make a similar migration now that the ruling Sarawak Barisan Nasional component parties have pulled out of the Barisan Nasional.

Jeniri doubts Bersatu would be able to draw the Malay votes to in such a crowded field.

He said another reason why Bersatu could find the going in Sarawak tough was due to the fear factor that a divided Malay community would be left powerless.

He was referring to the position of the Malays who, despite making up only 24% of the state’s 2.4 million population, hold the position of power in the government and civil service.

 “It’s this fear factor that had kept the Malays largely together and supporting PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, the largest party in the state). And it is this fear that had made peninsula-based parties like PKR or PAS unappealing, giving PBB a near stranglehold on the Malay support for decades,” Jeniri said.

Jeniri said the study he made last year also found 92% of Malays do not want Umno to branch out to Sarawak.

A good thing

To political analyst James Chin, “it’s a very good thing” for Bersatu to branch to Sarawak.

The Director of the Asia Institute of the University of Tasmania, Australia, said it’s maybe time for PBB to “face some real competition”.

Like Jeniri, he, however, pointed out the problems peninsular-based parties need to overcome in parochial Sarawak.

For Bersatu to have any acceptance, Chin said it would be very dependent who the Bersatu Sarawak leaders, particularly the state liaison chief, are, a view shared by some PBB grassroots leaders.

Chin said if Bersatu can rope in prominent, senior figures from the state’s Muslim community or get senior leaders from PBB to defect and join them, “then they could build some momentum”.

He said the “best way to start is to look for defections from PBB and GPS”. GPS is Gabung Parti Sarawak, a coalition made up of former Sarawak BN component parties, PBB, SUPP, PRS and PDP.

“That was how PPBM (Bersatu) started, (with former Umno leaders). They could certainly use the same tactic in Sarawak.”

Chin said the real test for Bersatu and PH is in the 2021 state election.

“PH Sarawak’s fortune will be tied to the performance of Sarawak PH ministers in the federal cabinet and also the performance of PH federal government.

“If they can show they can rule better then Umno, then GPS is in big trouble.”

Chin also said Sarawak voters would also be looking at the performance of Parti Warisan in Sabah.

“If Warisan does well, then they’ll have no fear of tossing GPS out.”

The Sarawak nationalism card which PBB and the other component parties in GPS are expected to employ in the 2021 state election, could make it “very challenging” for all peninsula-based parties, Jeniri said.

“They will definitely equate Bersatu with the much hated Umno.”

Still, PBB grassroots leader Shah Izshan believes Bersatu and all the other peninsula-based parties will split the Malays.

He said one needs to just look at the analytical statistics of GE14 to see it.

“It’ll probably be a different kettle of fish in the coming state election if the state nationalism card is played but the effect will be the same, the Malays will be fragmented.” – June 28, 2018