AFTER its thrashing in GE14, Barisan Nasional is now irrelevant on the national scene and is just a regional party in peninsular Malaysia, with the exit of its component parties in Sabah and Sarawak, analysts say.

But its defeat has brought to life the concept of federalism – where both state and federal governments have equal status – which observers say can be a good development for the two Bornean states.

Penang Institute analyst Wong Chin Huat said there were three scenarios for Sarawak and possibly Sabah later.

The first is where the ex-BN Sarawak parties, now under the Gabungan Parti Sarawak banner, become allies of the Pakatan Harapan government at the federal level, but remain on their own at state level.

“If this leads to a healthy two-party system, it would be a good thing,” said Wong.

A second, not-so-healthy scenario could be after the Sarawak state election in 2021, where PH and GPS could form a coalition government. This would turn it into a one-party state.

“This will either breed collusion or lead to an implosion later… with hardly any democracy.”

The last and least desirable scenario is where the former BN parties decide to take on PH at both the federal and state levels if their demands for greater autonomy or federal funds are not met.

“The two-party competition will likely lead to escalation of regional nationalism, as the non-PH parties may play up sentiments for self-determination in their attack of PH parties as peninsular parties.”

No more a grand old party

From 14, BN is now whittled down to just four parties – Umno, MCA, MIC, and Gerakan – following yesterday’s departure of its component members in Sarawak to form GPS on the basis of pursuing the state’s rights under the 1963 Malaysia Agreement.

A fifth peninsular-based party, MyPPP, is in a tussle of its own between its former and new president, with the latter saying it has left BN, while the former says it hasn’t.

The ex-BN Sarawak parties that left were Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, Sarawak United People’s Party, Progressive Democratic Party, and Parti Rakyat Sarawak.

Earlier, BN’s members in Sabah were reduced not long after the May 9 election results, when the United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation, Parti Bersatu Sabah, Liberal Democratic Party, and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah quit the coalition to align with the new state government under Parti Warisan Sabah and PH.

From the 79 federal seats it won in GE14, BN now has 57, out of 222 in Parliament.

“This new development makes the new (PH) federal government stronger than even BN in 2013,” said Universiti Malaya Malay studies lecturer Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“This is definitively the worst position BN can be in.”

It is a huge fall for a national coalition that has held power in Malaysia for six decades, as BN had thrived all this while on a consociational arrangement, where each component party represented a specific ethnic group or interest.

“Now, without Sabah and Sarawak, BN has become a regional (peninsular), and not the national party it was designed to be,” said International Islamic University political science lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar.

Awang Azman, who is from Sarawak, is optimistic that this new dynamic is better for his state.

“Under BN, power sharing was almost non-existent or (just) bit by bit. It can’t be worse under PH.” – June 11, 2018.