MCA and MIC will be the biggest losers in the next general election if Barisan Nasional (BN), through Umno, continues its pact with Pakatan Harapan (PH), political analysts said. 

They said these two parties will be nothing but “deadwood” in the unity coalition if seats are allocated based on the current incumbency method.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said the incumbency method will only favour PH and Umno. 

“If PH-BN continues with the formula of incumbency, the major losers will be MCA and MIC. 

“Their traditional seats are now held by DAP but Umno can still negotiate to contest in Malay-majority areas held by Perikatan Nasional (PN),” the political science assistant professor said. 

Recently, the Kuala Kubu Baharu seat was allocated to DAP based on incumbency despite it also being a traditional seat contested by MCA. 

The KKB seat in Selangor fell vacant following the death of its three-term DAP assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong on March 21. 

The by-election is a four-cornered fight involving Pang Sock Tao (PH/DAP), Khairul Azhari Saut (PN/Bersatu), Hafizah Zainuddin (Parti Rakyat Malaysia) and independent Nyau Ke Xin.

Tunku Mohar said that both MCA and MIC should ponder their options but admitted it will be a tough decision to make. 

“Staying with BN now will make both MCA and MIC irrelevant.

“But joining PN will also not ensure that they can win in elections simply because support to PN among non-Malays is even lower compared to PH. 

“All this while, MCA and MIC depend on BN to stay relevant, and it is inconceivable that they are going to survive without the support of a grand coalition,” the political analyst added. 

Last year, ahead of the six state polls, MIC president S.A. Vigneswaran feared that the oldest Indian party in the country would be sidelined entirely by the unity coalition in the next federal election. 

He said this was based on the seat talks held by Umno/BN and PH for the six-state elections. 

He added that the formula used by Umno and PH was to allow incumbent parties to keep their seats, meaning there were only few constituencies for BN to contest. 

Currently, MCA and MIC have three parliamentary seats – Ayer Hitam, Tanjung Piai and Tapah respectively. 

At the state level, MCA has four seats in Johor, two in Malacca and one in Perak, while MIC has three seats in Johor, one each in Malacca and Pahang. 

If allocated by incumbency, these are the number of seats both parties will get to contest compared to other partners in the unity coalition. 

In need of Malay support

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomudin Bakar concurred with Tunku Mohar, saying Umno will not have an issue when it comes to seat allocation but certainly it will affect MCA and MIC. 

“Umno will not have an issue with the seat allocation because they will contest in Malay-majority seats. These seats are not PH strongholds.

“But MCA and MIC will have issues because the seats they usually contest are mixed and Chinese-majority seats, which are now given to PH based on incumbency,” he said. 

Hisomudin also said it would be unwise for MCA and MIC to quit BN. 

This is because they won their seats with Umno’s support. Without Malay support, it would have been impossible for MCA and MIC to win Tanjung Piai, Ayer Hitam and Tapah, he added.

Hisomudin said joining PN would not make life easy for MCA and MIC, claiming that the non-Malays are not entirely inclined towards the opposition coalition. 

Despite clear dissatisfaction and criticism towards the government over the lack of reforms and the slow economic recovery, Hisomudin claimed that there was no swing in voters’ trend.

“Gerakan tried to attract the interest of the non-Malay voters but they failed, while the Chinese don’t have a better alternative than DAP.

“Hence, the dynamic of current politics may remain,” he said.

In the 15th general election (GE15), BN had their worst-ever federal election outing, clinching only 30 seats. 

GE15 resulted in a hung parliament, where no individual party nor coalition could cough up the figures to form the government. 

This caused PH and BN to put aside their long-term differences and come together to form the federal government. 

However, MCA and MIC were not given any government posts despite being in the ruling pact. – May 8, 2024