TOMORROW’S state elections could possibly result in Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) remaining in power in their respective states, Ilham Centre said.

Based on responses from a survey conducted, the independent pollster predicted the outcome of tomorrow’s polls will be unchanged – PH-BN will retain Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang, while Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan are expected to remain with PN. 

“PH-BN showcased their excellent performance in the state government administration, giving voters in these states confidence in their pact. 

“In addition, the basic vote that PH has, especially among non-Malay voters, seems to be the permanent deposits of this coalition. Non-Malay support does not seem to move,” the think tank said in a statement today. 

Six states – Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – will go to the polls tomorrow. 

According to the survey, PN would need to get the support of more than 70% of Malay voters to be able to have the chance to govern, since the Chinese and Indian votes are safe with PH. 

“PN has the chance to increase their seats in Malay-majority constituencies but will not be able to take over the state,” it said. 

The survey also found that it would be impossible for PN to unseat the strong PH-BN cooperation in Negri Sembilan. 

“In Negri Sembilan, BN’s support among Malay voters is huge while PH on the other hand dominates the mixed and Chinese majority areas. 

“PAS and Bersatu are not as strong and organised in this state as compared to the other five states. 

“Besides that, PN also has trouble displaying a poster boy for the menteri besar post and this has somehow affected attracting fence-sitters”, Ilham said. 

In Penang, Ilham Centre said the focus will be on the Malay-majority seats, claiming the other seats are safely in the bag for PH-BN. 

“PN has a chance in the Malay majority constituencies of Penaga, Pinang Tunggal, Permatang Berangan and Sungai Dua, while close fights could be seen in Telok Ayer Tawar, Permatang Pasir and Penanti,” it said. 

In Kelantan and Terengganu, Ilham Centre finds PH-BN are not serious in their efforts to take over the states. 

“PAS are quite comfortable and are very careful with their campaigning. 

“According to the data, for the question of whether the state government should be retained, Kelantan is the lowest with only 57% agreeing, the lowest percentage among states under PAS administration. 

“It was 61% for Terengganu and Kedah was at 67%.

“This proves there is dissatisfaction among voters that want a change of government, but the situation is the opposite after the nomination of candidates,” the think tank said. 

In Kelantan, only the Kota Lama and Galas seats are considered to be a 50-50 situation for PH-BN, and that too with the help of Chinese votes. 

“In Terengganu, only the Telemung seat shows potential to contribute while others seats such as Kijal, Seberang Takir and Permaisuri requires Umno’s votes to compete with PAS. Bandar is expected to be a fierce battle due to the factor of non-Malay voters,” the centre said. 

In Kedah, the survey found that caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Noor’s popularity was enough for PN to retain the state.

“PN can sweep most seats if the Chinese voter turnout is low on polling day,” it said. 

The survey, which was conducted between July 28 until August 8, involved a total of 2,304 respondents. – August 11, 2023.