THE early assessment of most analysts is that the voter turnout in the forthcoming elections in Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will be low.

Their assessment is based on the results of past elections and the timing of the state polls, coming just nine months after the last general election (GE).

They however said a more accurate reading on the mood of the voters – and turnout – could only be gleaned in the final week of campaigning.

“The trend will only be known after August 5 when we get a real sense of what the turnout will be like,” Merdeka Center For Opinion research officer Ted Lee told The Malaysian Insight.

He said the six state elections coming hot on the heels of the GE could see voters still suffering from the voting fatigue or election hangover.

“It’s only been eight months ago that we had the GE and past indicators have shown that voters are less enthusiastic when state elections are held so soon after the general election,” he said.

He pointed to the Malacca state election in November 2021 and the Johor state election in March 2022 as examples.

Statistics showed that the average turnout for the Malacca election was 65.85% while the Johor polls turnout was 54.92%.

In comparison, the average turnout in the GE was 73.89%.

Lee pointed out that past trends, backed by data, have also shown that the majority of voters placed more importance on the general election rather than state elections.

“If it’s the general election, outstation voters, like those who work in Kuala Lumpur, are more likely to make the trip back home to Kedah or Kelantan, for example, to cast their vote.

“It is highly unlikely they would do the same for a state election. Voters somehow attach less importance to state elections and they are therefore less keen to spend time and money on it,” he added.

Lee said the turmoil in Umno could also keep their grassroots supporters away from the polls.

“They are not happy with the party’s leadership and their decision to work with their political enemies PKR and DAP.”

Lee said even though Umno was battered and lost a lot of seats in the recent GE, their grassroots support is still relatively large.

He also pointed out the unhappiness in Umno is due to their cooperation with PH. This had prevented them from fielding candidates in their traditional seats they won in the last state elections.

“Umno can’t field candidates in the seats they used to. Now it is only in a few.

 “This has angered the grassroots who see their traditional seats taken over by PKR and DAP.

“That could be a factor for a low turnout.”

Vote of confidence in Anwar

 Political activist, Vincent Thock Kiah Wah, was also of the opinion that the turnout would not be high.

He said it could be between 60% and 70%.

“It’s simple. Their interest is not as great as in the general election.

“They also don’t see how a win in the state polls could impact the federal government.”

Thock said what the voters in the six states have not realised yet is that the state elections could be a vote of confidence on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his unity government.

“If Anwar and his allies in the unity government retain Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan and pull off the odds to win Kedah, it will be a huge endorsement for them.

“But if he were to lose Selangor and Negri Sembilan and get battered in the three conservative Malay states up north, it will certainly create instability for the unity government,” he said.

A long time analyst and former newsman Cheah See Kian said PAS currently seems to be making all the noise in the run up to the elections.

“We’ve been hearing a lot of controversial statements coming from the Islamists.

“In the past, DAP would be making all the noises and bashing the ruling party.

“Now, it’s PAS that is picking up the slack,” he said.

Lee meanwhile said a long campaign period will work in favour of Perikatan Nasional (PN).

“They have a lot of issues they could spin and exploit. The bad economy is a prime target.

“A long campaign period will give PN more opportunity and time to hype up issues.

“They will use it to portray the government is incompetent,” he said.

The campaign period had been fixed for 14 days.

The polls in the six states – Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – are on August 12, with nomination day set for July 29. However, parties have already started their election campaigning. –  July 18, 2023.