Analyst predicts defeat for Perikatan in Selangor

Mohd Farhan Darwis

Perikatan Nasional aims to win a simple majority of 29 seats in the Selangor legislative assembly. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Najjua Zulkefli, June 30, 2023.

PERIKATAN Nasional’s (PN) Selangor Baru Tour is likely to draw the interest of first-time voters, including fence-sitters, in the state, an observer said.

However, Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said this is as far as it will go.

He said the coalition’s target of achieving a simple majority in the Selangor legislative assembly may be difficult, although it looks attainable on paper.

He said to achieve that goal, PN needs to command up to 80% of Malay support in Selangor, putting Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) at their worst with only 20% of Malay votes.

“Although PN says the target is realistic, it still needs 70-80% of Malay votes to take over Selangor,” Hisomuddin told The Malaysian Insight.

“This figure is close to impossible to achieve from the 34 Malay-majority state constituencies.

“If they can get 80%, it means that PH-BN only have 20%. If that happens, it makes sense for BN-PH to lose. But the situation is, it’s not going to be that easy for PN.”

PN is focusing on winning at least 34 seats with 60% or more Malay voters, out of the total of 56 seats in Selangor.

The coalition is also aiming to win a simple majority of 29 seats.

In last year’s general election, PN had about 54% support of Malay voters in Selangor.

The coalition, comprising PAS, Bersatu and Gerakan, won six parliamentary seats in the state.

“They need more than 26% more support from Malay voters. That number is not easy to achieve,” said Hisomuddin.

“Imagine, this time is a one-on-one clash. In the general election, there were three-cornered fights. If PH and BN get 30% of the Malay votes, then it is impossible for PN win 29 seats. They (PN) need to get 80% of Malay votes, but it will be difficult.”

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar says Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional are behind in terms of showing their strength as incumbent state governments. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, June 30, 2023.

‘Big task for BN

Selangor is one of six states that are expected to hold elections in August. The others are Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan. 

PH, which is the state government in Selangor, Penang, and Negri Sembilan, is now raising the tempo after joining forces with former rival BN.

PN, which is the government in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, is striving to expand its leadership with Selangor as a special focus.

“PH and BN are behind in terms of showing their strength as incumbent governments,” said Hisomuddin.

The BN-PH pact has failed to focus on its work, he said.

“The incumbent Selangor government has failed to show its strength. This is what PH and BN need to work on.

“This is a big task for BN to get the percentage of Malay support it needs.”

Ilham Centre also expects several things to happen after the state polls. Among them is the change in the political coalitions.

It expects Umno and DAP to reconsider the cooperation forged after the general election. – June 30, 2023.

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