‎TANJUNG Malim has always been a Barisan Nasional fortress but recent visits by the prime minister and his deputy suggest that even the BN top guns sense the contest could be closer in this southern Perak constituency.

On their part, opposition politicians think that just a 5% swing in GE14 and the seat will fall into their hands.

So tonight, Pakatan Harapan leaders, including former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wah Ismail and Amanah president Mohamad Sabu, will visit Felda settlements in the constituency to persuade the settlers to switch their vote to the opposition.

BN’s majority was slashed from 14,693 votes in 2004 to 4,328 in 2013. And there are indications that the margin could fall further at the next elections.

Tanjung Malim MP Ong Ka Chuan, MCA secretary-general and a federal minister, is facing internal and external challenges as he aims for a third term in this seat.

Some grassroots MCA members have lobbied for Perak executive councillor and the party’s sole assemblyman in Perak, Dr Mah Hang Soon, to replace Ong.

PKR’s candidate Chang Lih Kang has also been hitting the ground since 2016, including reaching out to Felda settlements that dominate the constituency.

Battle for Felda votes

PKR is banking on Felda settlers’ angst over the rising cost of living and Dr Mahathir’s influence to win the BN stronghold for the first time at GE14.

“We just need a 5% swing from the Malays to win,” Chang told The Malaysian Insight.

He said in 2013, the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat won over a third of the Malays, three-quarters of the Chinese and about half of the Indian votes in Tanjung Malim.

The two-term Teja assemblyman said the Felda settlers have warmed up to his party.

“Previously, the settlers were very hostile, they would stop us from going in but now they are friendlier. People would take the calendars and posters we distribute,” said Chang.

Chang, 38, a former human rights activist with Suaram, volunteered to stand as a candidate in the BN fortress because Tanjung Malim’s electoral composition reflects Malaysia’s population.

As of 2017, Tanjung Malim was made up of 68,634 voters of whom 55.5% were Malays, Chinese (25.6%), Indians (13%) and Orang Asli (5.86%). Almost half of the Malays are Felda settlers.

There are three state seats in Tanjung Malim – Slim, Behrang and Sungkai.

Slim and Behrang are rural, Malay-majority seats while Sungkai is a semi-urban, Chinese-majority seat.

In 2008, BN lost Behrang to PKR and Sungkai to DAP by slim majorities of fewer than 1,500 votes.

It recaptured Behrang with a majority of 1,928 votes but lost Sungkai with a larger majority to DAP in 2013.  

Out of the three state seats, BN has never lost Slim.

PH top guns will hold a ceramah and a few smaller meetings at Felda Gunung Besout, one of the polling districts within Slim today.

Cracks in BN fixed deposit

Gunung Bersout 1 Umno division chief Alias Salion told The Malaysian Insight life is good in Felda.

“The government provided us with everything. We had nothing. What else do (the opposition supporters) want? We have children of Felda settlers who have now become doctors, lawyers, engineers, even a judge,” said an indignant Alias.

Before he came to Felda, he was poor and landless in Bagan Serai. Now he is grateful for the better life that Felda has provided him and his family.

However, Chang said Felda settlers are also burdened by the rising cost of living from the goods and services tax (GST) and removal of subsidies on essential goods.

“We’ve heard all sorts of complaints from the settlers. They are complaining that Felda is paying them late for their harvests, last time it was two weeks once, now once a month.

“Some of them would rather sell the fruits outside for a lower price where they are paid in cash. But they get fined by Felda when they are found out.”

While many first-generation settlers like Alias are likely to remain loyal to BN, Chang believes younger Felda voters who have more access to information about scandals plaguing Felda and BN will vote for PH.

“We’ll have to convince them to come back to vote,” he said of these youth voters, most of whom work outstation. – March 16, 2018.