BARISAN Nasional’s optimism about crushing Pakatan Harapan in Perak is not misplaced, going by the cautious sentiments of opposition grassroots activists and analysts about the Malay vote in the silver state.

PH component parties Amanah and Bersatu are going for Malay seats that are either marginal ones or where Umno is a stronghold. 

Out of the 12 seats Amanah is contesting, at least three were won by Umno with slim majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes. They are Manjoi (132 votes), Pasir Panjang (304) and Rungkup (613).

Perak Amanah chairman Asmuni Awi told The Malaysian Insight, PH only needs 35% Malay support to win the silver state. Amanah is going after PAS support that is split between the Islamist party and its splinter party, while Bersatu is chasing the Umno vote.

“Now we’re at the stage of reaching out to the voters through the personal touch,” he said.

Perak PH and Bersatu chairman Ahmad Faizal Azumu believes Bersatu is making headway in rural Malay seats which are Umno strongholds.

“In Pengkalan Hulu (a state seat in northern tip of Perak, bordering Thailand), there is no phone coverage. When I went into the kampung, people came and talked about issues I didn’t think they would know about, 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Bhd) and GST (goods and services tax). 

“These are kampung folks. I was shocked. They may get some of the details wrong but they know who are the thieves,” said Ahmad Faizal.

Malay fears and Dr Mahathir

But roti canai distributor Amiruddin Yusof said people in his Bukit Chandan state seat would “listen to the opposition’s stories but vote for BN”.

“The BN state assemblymen and parliamentarians work hard and care for the people. Our assemblyman often hits the ground. It’s impossible for the (Malay) tsunami to happen. People are grateful and remember the good (done by BN). They don’t understand 1MDB,” said the 53-year old who also votes in the Malay-majority Kuala Kangsar federal seat. 

Businessman Zaliha Mat, 63, also a Kuala Kangsar voter, said while Malays are disappointed with national issues, they were also afraid to vote for the opposition.

“We’re afraid the welfare of the Malays will not be taken care of. The government takes care of the Malays. We are disappointed. But it’s tough, so what to do?” he said.

Perak DAP chief Ngeh Koo Ham acknowledged these fears, which he said Umno had stoked, and stressed the important role of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who is now PH chairman.

“The Malays are ready for change. They are tired of Umno’s corruption and scandals. But they are worried. They need the assurance that their rights and interests will be taken care of. 

“With the announcement of Dr Mahathir as the prime minister candidate and Dr Wan Azizah (Wan Ismail) as his deputy, it shows that the Malays are still in charge, and that their future will be brighter with the changes Pakatan will bring,” said Ngeh.

A ceramah featuring PH top guns, such as Bersatu chairman Dr Mahathir, PKR president Dr Wan Azizah, Amanah president Mohamad Sabu and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng in Taiping earlier this month drew a mixed crowd of a few thousand.

Although DAP won the Taiping federal seat in 2013, Umno defended Kamunting, a state seat within Taiping, by 887 votes.

Weak desire for change

Researcher Hisommudin Bakar, however, said his surveys on the ground did not show a desire for change in Perak’s remote areas and Malay-majority seats.

“The turnout at the ceramah in Kamunting on March 3 does not reflect the real picture in Perak. This is because Taiping is a town and DAP stronghold, so the turnout is not expected to pressure BN,” said the Ilham Centre director, adding that Bersatu’s young party machinery is still weak compared with established parties like Umno and PAS.

Selangor think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan chief executive officer Prof Dr Mohd Redzuan Othman said he, too, has yet to sense a mood for change among the Malay voters in Perak.

“I suspect BN may win with a larger majority. The opposition has a lot of hard work to do to convince Malay voters they are a viable alternative,” he said.

In Malay-majority Lenggong, a BN fortress in northern Perak, PKR branch secretary Hasanul Isyraf said the Malay tsunami could only happen if the top leaders hit the ground more often.

“We have to work harder. Some people want change because they feel pressured by higher cost of living. (But) locals here (in Lenggong) are afraid to speak their mind,” he said. 

Lenggong has never been won by the opposition. However, BN’s majority has declined steadily from 5,632 in 2004 to 3,453 in 2013. 

Likewise in Tanjung Malim, another BN stronghold in southern Perak, which has never been in the opposition hands. BN’s majority here, too, has been slashed from 14,693 votes in 2004 to 4,328 in 2013.

Both BN and PH are banking on a rise in Malay support to win a comfortable 35 to 40 seats in Perak. BN currently holds 31 seats, PH 24 and PAS four seats in the state assembly. 

The now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat won 55% of the popular vote in 2013 but did not gain control of the state assembly. The opposition first captured the state in 2008 but lost it to BN a year later through defections by three of its assemblymen. – March 14, 2018.