Pakatan to top GE15, but without simple majority, pollster says

Mohd Farhan Darwis

A Pakatan Harapan supporter reacts during a ceramah in Keramat Selangor, November 16, 2022. Independent pollster Ilham Centre predicts PH will be the biggest bloc with 86 seats in the 222-seat chamber, if there was an 80% voter turnout tomorrow. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Seth Akmal, November 18, 2022.

INDEPENDENT pollster Ilham Centre has predicted that none of the three coalitions will win 112 seats in the country’s 15th general election and form a federal government.

Its executive director Hisommudin Bakar said its survey showed that Pakatan Harapan (PH) will be the biggest bloc with 86 seats in the 222-seat chamber, if there was an 80% voter turnout tomorrow.

He said Barisan Nasional (BN) would cross the finish line with 51 seats while Perikatan Nasional (PN) would bag 25 seats.

Hisommudin said its survey found that BN was still the top choice for Malay voters, particularly in rural Malay while PH continued to draw support from non-Malay voters.

He said PN had split the BN votes but failed to threaten the coalition’s grip on its base.

Ilham Centre also said that the Borneo parties will play a vital role in the forming the new federal government.

It said that PH is expected to control six of 31 seats in Sarawak, while Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) will win about 18 seats and Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) will also win a seat. On the other hand, six other seats will witness fierce competition.

In Sabah and Labuan, the pollster predicted that BN is set to win three seats, PH with two seats, while Warisan and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) will each win six seats.

“An Independent candidate will win one seat, with eight of the 26 seats expected to be intense,” said Ilham Centre. 

Among the areas to be hotly contested are Kangar, Arau, Pokok Sena, Kulim Bandar Baharu, Ketereh, Bukit Gantang, Sungai Buloh, Temerloh, Sungai Besar, Kuala Selangor, Tampin, Ayer Hitam, Kudat, Putatan, Penampang, Sipitang, Kinabatangan, Tawau, Kalabakan, Sri Aman, Lubok Antu, Igan, Sarikei, Miriam, Kimanis and Lawas.

“The Sabah scenario is quite unique. Even though it appears that the GRS-BN agreed to divide the area in order to avoid clashes with each other, this has apparently invited different reactions from the voters.

“For areas that were traditionally contested by BN but were handed over to GRS, it will make it difficult for their staunch supporters to vote for GRS. Likewise it also happened in GRS seats handed over to BN,” Hisommudin said.

He added that the clash is expected to benefit Warisan in the event of sabotage and protest votes.

The study was conducted for three weeks from October 30 to November 17, involving face-to-face interviews with 1,211 respondents and a target group discussion of 150 respondents across the country. – November 18, 2022.

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