UMNO is trying to kill off Khairy Jamaluddin’s political career by nominating the former Rembau MP as the candidate for the Sungai Buloh parliamentary seat in the coming general election, observers said.

Political pundits agreed that he has almost zero chance of winning in the PKR stronghold on November 19.

They told The Malaysian Insight that Khairy stood a better chance of winning if he was named as a candidate in Kuala Pilah, Negri Sembilan or in Tanjong Karang, Selangor where majority of the voters are Malay.

On Saturday, it was reported that the caretaker health minister would stand as Barisan Nasional’s (BN) candidate in Sungai Buloh for the national polls.

It would appear that Umno sniffed out an opportunity to capture the seat as incumbent Sungai Buloh MP Sivarasa Rasiah of PKR is due to be replaced by newcomer Ramanan Ramakrishnan.

Sivarasa trounced his three opponents at the 2018 polls, taking nearly 56% of the vote.

Khairy cast doubt on his political future recently when he said he had been pushed out of Rembau by Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan, who is keen to consolidate his position in Negri Sembilan.

Veteran political observer Sayuti Omar did not mince his words when asked if the former Umno Youth chief could have a surprise win in Sungai Buloh.

Using the Sungai Buloh prison as a metaphor, Sayuti said Umno was trying to “lock up” Khairy’s political ambition – at least for five years.

“Sungai Buloh is synonymous with the Sungai Buloh prison and we know prison is a place where we lock people up. Symbolically he is being sent to Sungai Buloh to have his career locked up.

“It is a sign that Khairy has to double his efforts in order to win in Sungai Buloh but Umno wants to put his ambition ‘behind bars’,” said Sayuti.

He said Khairy was seen as someone who had been against party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

“Jealousy and revenge is common in politics. Khairy is not a ‘yes man’. He also did not agree to have an election this year and wanted it postponed until next year. He said that based on his capacity as the health minister.

“But the party, especially the president, did not like what Khairy said. Whether or not BN has the chance to win is not the issue, the issue is that they are trying to kill off his career. If he wins it is a bonus for BN, if he loses, it is also a bonus for BN,” he explained.

Mirroring Sayuti’s sentiment is Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar who said it would be tough for Khairy to capture the seat.

However, he said Khairy could win the seat if Perikatan Nasional (PN) nominates a non-Malay candidate for Sungai Buloh.

“It will be interesting to see this battle in Sungai Buloh. A newcomer against an Umno heavyweight in a non-Malay-majority seat.

“Malays are about 66%, followed by Chinese 22% and Indians about 11%. If PN names a non-Malay, BN has a slim chance of winning.

“Still Sungai Buloh is Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) stronghold, I can understand why others are saying that this move is a political suicide for Khairy, who has done a good job as a minister under the most challenging times – Covid-19.

“Even if he wins, it means people voted for him not because of his Umno background but because of his performance as a minister. But it would be hard for him,” said Hisommudin.

Better chances in Kuala Pilah or Tanjong Karang

Academic Dr Mazlan Ali questioned Umno’s move for not putting Khairy in a Malay-majority seat where he could win handsomely.

He said Khairy should have been placed at a Malay seat unless Umno was trying to put an end to his political journey.

“Kuala Pilah is a better seat than Sungai Buloh for Khairy. Tanjong Karang in Selangor is also another seat he can contest. The demography between Sungai Buloh is different from Kuala Pilah and Tanjong Karang.

“Sungai Buloh is an urban seat, not all the Malays will vote for Umno whereas the non-Malays, we know they prefer PH over BN,” he said.

Mazlan said the voters in Sungai Buloh are politically literate, adding that Umno’s tarnished image was not helping the party win in an urban seat.

“We know Umno is a party that’s been hit with corruption issues. Its image is not clean. For urban voters this is a factor not to vote for Umno.

“Khairy has a slim chance of winning. He needs to work hard but I don’t think the campaigning time is enough for him,” he added.

Umno has decided to name party deputy president Mohamad as Khairy’s replacement in Rembau.

Mohamad previously said that Umno would look for a “suitable” seat for Khairy, adding that Umno did not want him to “disappear” just like that.

In 2008, Khairy won the Rembau seat with 5,764 votes. Five years later, in 2013, he increased his support to 18,357 votes, while in the last national polls, he saw his votes drop to 4,368.

PKR, on the other hand, has replaced party veteran Sivarasa with Ramanan.

In the last general election, Sivarasa received 43,631 votes, defeating PAS candidate Nuridah Mohd Salleh, who garnered 16,977 votes, BN’s A. Prakash Rao (16,681) and Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s Zainurizzaman Moharam (642).

Sungai Buloh has traditionally been an MIC seat but for the coming election, Umno has swapped seats with the Indian-based party.

The Election Commission has fixed November 19 for polling, November 5 for nomination and November 15 for early voting. – November 1, 2022.