ANWAR Ibrahim’s decision to contest the Tambun seat is arguably the first big announcement from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition, which has finally gotten their act together in agreeing to a non-dissolution of their state assemblies.  

It is the kind of exciting headline the opposition badly needs to properly kickstart their campaign after lagging behind their main opponents.  

By planting Anwar right in the city centre of Perak, the opposition is clearly hoping its leader would generate much-needed momentum and change in the silver state.  

There is a saying that Perak, being ethnically and culturally diverse, makes it a microcosm of Malaysia and there are reasons to believe that PH must capture the state to win power.  

Historically, the state elections of Perak have somehow epitomised the mood of the nation. The tsunami of the 2008 general election where the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) was denied a two-thirds majority was accompanied by the first change of state government in Perak.  

BN managed to stay in power in the 2013 general election and that is reflected in the Perak polls where they improved their performance and obtained a majority in the state assembly.  

The Perak state government also mirrored its federal counterpart when BN was kicked out of power in 2018. Therefore, electoral history suggests that if BN could be toppled in Perak, the party was most likely suffering the same fate nationally.  

Though BN has lost Perak twice, it has also twice retaken the state through controversial means.  

The 2008 Pakatan Rakyat government lasted less than a year when three political defections instigated by Najib Razak allowed BN to swiftly return to power.  

Perak was also one of the very first states affected by the Sheraton Move where the PH state government was swiftly sacked once Muhyiddin Yassin was made prime minister. 

While the 2009 and 2020 political change may have been possible because the sitting government did not enjoy a huge majority, it only required a few assemblymen to effect change.  

Therefore, there is a sense that Perak remains a hotly contested state where political strength is equally matched.  

In 2008, the opposition gained a total of 31 seats compared to BN’s 28. Whereas in 2013, the numbers were entirely reversed where BN obtained 31 seats, the same number of seats PR previously won.  

While the results of 2018 were arguably complicated by PAS choosing not to align with PH and BN—which resulted in a hung assembly—the end result was not too dissimilar where PH managed to come up with a majority of 31 because of two defections from BN.  

Since there is a postponement in the tabling of the anti-party hopping law in Perak, there is a distinct possibility that defections might happen again if the winning party only enjoys a thin majority.  

Parliamentary results also tend to follow the trend set by the states where BN, at its weakest in 2018, was still able to retain 10 parliamentary seats.  

In fact, Umno has gained one more seat in 2018 compared to 2013; its electoral performance was only undone by the abject showing of its coalition partners.  

The impending election might be a whole new ball game given the implementation of Undi18, but the consistency of past results does suggest that it might be another closely fought contest.  

PH’s electoral advantage in Perak lies in the largely urban constituencies dominated by ethnic minorities, while BN dominates the Malay heartlands located in the northern side. 

What tipped the balance in favour of PH in 2018 was winning the mixed Malay seat of Tambun, which was formerly held by Ahmad Faizal Azumu of Bersatu.  

This is perhaps the strategic reason why the opposition is fielding Anwar there: the expectation that a repeat of 2018 would do the trick again.  

At the same time, PH is hoping that fielding their leader in Perak would lead to gains in seats with similar racial compositions like Bagan Serai, Kuala Kangsar, or even Bagan Datuk, which is held by Zahid Hamidi.  

However, the question remains whether Anwar is still capable of pulling votes for PH, as failure to do so would mean BN would still control Perak and perhaps also Putrajaya. – October 23, 2022.  

* Kenneth Cheng has always been interested in the interplay between human rights and government but more importantly he is a father of two cats, Tangyuan and Toufu. When he is not attending to his feline matters, he is most likely reading books about politics and human rights or playing video games. He is a firm believer in the dictum “power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.