THE guessing game on when the general elections will take place is ongoing, with the confusing relationship between Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN) still in limbo.  

It is obvious that we are headed into a royal battle between these two nominally multiracial coalitions, each with a strong Malay party behind them – PAS and UMNO, respectively.  

While it is not exactly a secret—at the federal level, and in states where BN has not yet kicked out their former ally—the political pretence that all is well remains.   

The problem now is both PN and BN cannot openly jostle each other without exposing themselves to ridicule. 

First, they both made Malay unity a central theme in their PR campaign to whitewash the Sheraton move. The narrative was that of the non-Malay dominated Pakatan Harapan (PH) bullying Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s government and eroding the stability BN had kept intact for many years.  

The alliance was unstable, and derided as a marriage of convenience, one aimed at wresting power.  

Even before they cemented their partnership, this was the core idea, with even MCA and MIC stepping back and letting UMNO lead this manoeuvre – first with PAS, and later with Bersatu. 

The narrative continued with that of an “angry rakyat”—that if nothing was done to stabilise the country, we were headed for even more problems.  

Moving from there, they painted themselves as a unified, stable force, capable of placating the so-called angry masses.  

Barely months in, cracks began to show, and it became obvious who the real beneficiary was when PN was forced to ask PH for help due to UMNO re-asserting its dominance against the increasingly arrogant Bersatu, which probably mistook the reverence PKR and DAP had for Dr Mahathir and UMNO’s reluctance to attack him, as actual power.  

The crux of all those arguments can be summarised: If the other was so bad, why did you work with them to kick out Mahathir?   

Second, both BN and PN have the major task of rewriting their narrative, restructuring their campaign machinery, and convincing voters of what they’re selling, in only the short span of an election campaign.  

Not only that, they will both have the unenviable task of fighting within the same demographic – semi-urban and rural areas.  

In that sense, PH has many advantages over both foes, strategically and ideologically.   

Ideologically speaking, with no official ties other than a soon-to-expire MOU, they are free to attack present and future policies of PN and BN, offering themselves as a more established alliance—one robbed of their democratic right to rule after winning an election fair and square.  

They can also begin to lay groundwork on their proposed offerings, without revealing too much and losing their strategic edge.  

A teaser now would put both PN and BN on the defensive, while forcing the Bornean parties and fringe parties to look for a side to hitch their bandwagon on.  

Strategically, PH can also lay claim to credits earned in their 22 months, while both BN and PN fight to be the good guy.  

Their leaders, both with government posts and without, are free to traverse the country on roadshows, while many of PN’s and BN’s are caught up with their duties and are unable to rock the federal boat.  

Machinery wise, at least the three main parties can freely form their meetings and begin laying out canvassing and ceramah plans, while the frequent breakups and makeups of the other sides leave them reeling and trying to suss out who they can trust.   

The oft-repeated unofficial political mantra these days is “win first”, and perhaps that is what PH should exploit to its advantage, while it still has it. – September 7, 2022.  

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.