AN increase in the number of daily Covid-19 cases over the past four weeks is raising concern that Malaysia may be headed for a fifth wave of infection.

Health minister Khairy Jamaluddin had said the nation may be facing the fifth wave, possibly within the next two or three months, judging by the trend of daily infections.

Khairy had warned that a fifth wave is imminent, based on the fact that the number of daily cases have increased from 1,000 to 2,000 of late.

From the start of the pandemic in 2020, Malaysia has logged 4.57 million cases, while 35,765 people have succumbed to the virus.

Recently, Malaysia reported 11,052 cases and 26 deaths, data from the 22nd epidemiology week of May 29 to June 4, showed.

In the following week, there were 11,094 cases, a 0.4% decrease, and 25 deaths.

June 12-18 saw cases increase by 27.9% to 14,195, while 21 deaths were reported.

Over the following seven days, there was a further 10.9% increase in the number of infections when 15,739 cases were logged.

However, the number of fatalities (13) continued to drop.

Last week, Malaysia logged 11,394 cases and 11 deaths.

Fifth wave

Dr Amar-Singh HSS said the fifth wave will hit us sooner than we think, based on previous data.

“The fourth wave came very quickly after the third wave, within four weeks,” he said.

“Some may argue that the fourth wave was due to considerable movement of people during the Ramadan and Hari Raya period, and that this encouraged the spread.

“Yet the real issue is that, even now, we fail to understand that there is no safe number to meet. All social interactions at work, education, religious or otherwise are easily exploited by this virus.

“The current high number of community infections, predominantly unlinked, makes another surge very likely.”

Malaysia faced its first Covid-19 wave from January 25 to February 16, 2020.

The second wave occurred between February 27, 2020 and June 30, 2020.

The third wave began on September 8, 2020 and lasted until February 24, 2021.

Four weeks later on June 22, Malaysia faced its fourth wave of infection. During the fourth wave, Malaysia recorded its highest number of daily infections when 33,406 cases were logged on March 3.

Amar said that if the fifth wave arrives soon, Malaysia may not fare too well.

“Our intensive care units (ICUs) are overstretched and still struggling with existing Covid-19 cases, with some patients having been dependent on ventilators for long periods of time.

“Healthcare workers are suffering from chronic fatigue, not just in hospitals but also in the public health sector and vaccination centres.

“If we have a fresh surge due to the Delta variant, the system has little ability to cope.”

Most of the cases reported in Malaysia originate from the Omicron variant.

However, the Delta variant was responsible for the first two waves, which led to severe symptoms and a high mortality rate.

Jabs to slow down surge

Former deputy health minister Dr Lee Boon Chye has a less bleak view, saying that the country will not face a fifth wave.

“It’s unlikely because most of the population is already vaccinated and most of us have been exposed to Covid-19,” Lee said.

“Vaccinations will wane after some time but most of the time, even when it has done so, the protective effect for serious illness is still there.

“You may see cases going up, but unlikely to be what we experienced with Delta.”

There are also new treatments such as Pfizer’s paxlovid to help patients with Covid-19, Lee said.

The national immunisation programme which started in February 2020 saw a decrease in mortality rates and severe symptoms among the Covid-19 patients.

To date, 83.5% of the population have been fully vaccinated. Among adolescents ages 12 to 17, the vaccination rate is 93.5%. Vaccination among children aged five to 11, still remains low, at 11.3% nationwide.

It is the lowest in the east coast states of Terengganu (6.8%) and Kelantan (4.8%) due to vaccine hesitancy among parents.

However, Low warned that a fifth wave may be imminent if a new variant of concern arrives in Malaysia.

“It will be up to the Health Ministry to monitor this.” – July 2, 2022.