THE lines of the next general election are being drawn, but where and when they finish may not be what the public expect. 

While the general perception is that the polls will be a three-horse race between Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional, with fringe parties like Muda and Warisan throwing in the hat in some seats, the reality is much more complicated than that. 

Within each of the parties within those three blocs, there are members pushing to go into coalition with non-traditional allies.

In DAP, for instance, Anwar loyalists are pressing for a strictly PKR-centric alliance, while others prefer to keep their options – and their doors – open to parties such as Pejuang. 

What were once clear lines have become blurred to allow the consideration of formerly mismatched allegiances or untested waters, but at the centre of it all, cleverly hiding its festering internal strife, sits Umno. 

The grand old party of Malaysia, Umno has survived decades by artfully biding its time, playing enemies and friends against one another, and thriving in the chaos it creates.

Not even PAS, with its unrivalled cadre discipline, can stand up against the leading Malay political entity’s wiles.  

There is no question about it, Umno is fragmented. The prime minister wasn’t the party’s first choice for the office but a compromise candidate, who gets most of his support from outside his own party. 

Ismail Sabri Yaakob has tried hard to build up his brand, but the disconnect is evident and played up by his detractors, who point to his about-turns on policy, unpopular subsidy cuts, and penchant for designer wear. 

The cracks appear to have deepened in the party with a new round of sackings, this time of controversial figure Tajuddin Abdul Rahman, who has since spilt more beans about statutory declarations and the party’s hedged bets on the two former prime ministerial camps of Anwar Ibrahim and Dr Mahathir Mohamad. 

That was a different time, when the voters were still angry at Umno and rejecting the members en bloc. Voter sentiment has since changed, and Umno, as fragmented as it is, knows that the chips are in its favour. 

If it plays its cards right, it could take on and take out both its adversaries – Pakatan Harapan, the clear present and future threat, and Perikatan Nasional, the thorn in its side which is seemingly weak, but whose moderate and youthful narrative could present a long-term challenge if it is not dealt with now. 

Yet, the realities of an increasingly difficult life for the average Malaysian are something politicians need to consider.

By dragging out the elections, Umno risks overtly associating itself with the government that is the cause of these woes. 

At the same time, pushing too hard for elections would make the party seem impervious to the hardships of the rakyat. Furthermore, a second Omicron wave is expected; two previous spikes were blamed on state elections, triggered in the midst of the pandemic, which were also associated with Umno. 

Although Umno gained much political power from those elections, it has provided its opponents with plenty of fodder, which is perhaps why Umno cannot fully capitalise on the momentum with propaganda, which would be seen as gloating at the expense of lives and livelihoods. 

Or perhaps Umno is just too caught up in the power struggle to take stock of its real strength and put together a strong election strategy. 

Either way, while Umno dominanc may have waned from its hegemonic days, its influence will still pretty much will shape the alignments of the general election which is due within a year.

Whether the other political parties will be able to shake it off depends greatly on how many more political stunts the people can stomach against a backdrop of economic hardship, Covid-19 endemicity, and political lethargy. – June 29, 2022.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.