The Malaysian Insight is running a series on marginal parliamentary seats as the nation heads towards the 14th general election. In the first part of our feature on Muar, Pakatan Harapan activists believe they need a slight bump in Malay votes to win Muar.

JUST 5%. That or slightly more is the increase in Malay votes that Pakatan Harapan believes it needs to capture the Muar parliamentary seat in the next elections.

Based on voting data from GE13, that 5% translates to about 1,485 votes.

The analysis is based on the voting trend of the past three general elections which shows eroding support for Barisan Nasional which held the seat since 1974.

PH activists, such as Norhayati Bachok, think it is not impossible given the warm reception she has received in the kampung of hardcore BN supporters.

“They let us in and that is a good sign. We also receive good feedback from the farmers’ market traders and visitors when we go on a walkabout there,” said the Johor Amanah Wanita chief, a PH component party.

Muar Amanah committee member Ishak Abu Bakar is optimistic about the coalition’s chances going by the voting trend.

“In GE 13, we received 80% votes from the Chinese and about 38% to 45% from Malays,” said the 62-year-old retired teacher.  

“We need another 5% or slightly more to defeat BN,” said Ishak.

But Ishak knows that Johor Malays are BN’s staunchest supporters, particularly its lynchpin party, Umno.

Umno was born in Johor, where more than 40 Malay organisations held the party’s first annual general assembly in Johor Baru.

Umno’s support level among rural Johorean Malays is so high that even in GE13, where the opposition Pakatan Rakyat had its best electoral showing, a handful of PR candidates in the state’s eastern seats lost their election deposits.   

Ishak said in the lead up to GE14, PH’s rivals are scaring Johor Malays by saying that DAP, Amanah’s partner in PH, will run the country if the opposition pact wins.

“We have to meet and explain our structure to them. We have to tell them about the federal constitution.”

The parliamentary seat encompasses half of Muar, Johor’s second biggest town. In GE13, it had 48,208 registered voters.

In GE13, Deputy Minister Razali Ibrahim managed to retain Muar by 1,646 votes, down from his previous winning majorities of 4,661 in 2008 and 13,415 in 2004. 

Muar’s voters are 62% Malay, 35% Chinese and 1% Indian. Its two state seats are Maharani and Sungai Balang.

In GE13, Maharani, which has 55% Malay voters and 42% Chinese, was won by PAS’ Mohammad Taslim by 3,136 votes. At that time, PAS was in the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition with PKR and DAP.

Sungai Balang, which 72% Malay, was retained by BN with 1,635 votes.

Although PAS, which is now PH’s rival, is also expected to field a candidate, Ishak said this will not impact on PH’s chances unlike in other parts of the country.

“We believe that votes for BN will decrease while PAS will only get votes from its hardcore supporters and we believe it will not be more than 5,000 votes,” said Ishak.

Norhayati said Muar is expected to be contested by PH component Bersatu, while Amanah takes Maharani and PKR fields a candidate in Sungai Balang.

Umno, meanwhile, is confident of defending the seat. An Umno activist, Mohd Radzi Amin, said the party will likely get 60% of all votes.

“The decline in votes in the last GE was because some of the candidates were not liked by locals.”

There will an increase in support provided that there is no infighting among the party and that it fields a winnable candidate, he said.

Radzi said BN is still expected to do well among Muar’s Malays.

“Like in Sungai Balang, 70% of the population are Malays, the Malays in Muar are not ready to allow another Malay party besides Umno to win the seats.”

Although he did not refer to it by name, Radzi was likely referring to Bersatu, PH’s Malay-centric component party. – February 13, 2018.