HAVING logged more than 31,000 deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic, Malaysia has not had a worst year in terms of loss of life since World War 2, when an estimated 60,000 people had died in the Japanese occupation of Malaya in 1941 to 1945.

Of the 31,392 official virus deaths, 98.5% of them occurred last year on Muhyiddin Yassin and then Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s watch. In 2020, there were only 471 Covid-19 deaths.

While the current administration, whether Barisan Nasional or Perikatan Nasional, will argue that the high number of infections and deaths were inevitable, the adverse events nonetheless took place after the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government.

What is indisputable is that political survival and instability took precedence over pandemic management in the last two years, leading to poor handling of the virus spread, the economy and most recently, the floods.

Among the political manoeuvres that took place in the past year includes the questionable decision to declare a state of emergency that stopped Parliament from convening, prolonged lockdowns caused by ill-conceived SOPs, and the use of executive power to offer positions and privileges in exchange for support. The bad appointments meant the government always had a number of bad managers making important policy decisions.  

The only achievement of the the BN/PN government is the vaccination programme that has covered 97.6% of adults and 78.4% of the total population. 

As such, it was unsurprising that Malacca and Sarawak voters overwhelmingly chose political stability by picking BN and Gabungan Parti Sarawak in the state polls.

While Malacca has resolved the instability that had plagued the state since the the federal PH government was ousted in 2020, the national political situation remains precarious as Ismail’s government is backed by more enemies than allies.

Forced concessions 

“Instability” is not all bad. As a result of uncertainty, the government is now more open to reform, even if it is for the sake of its survival.Since Ismail’s appointment, for instance, the government has begun allocating equal funding to opposition and government constituencies. But opposition parties Pejuang, Warisan and Muda, which did not sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the government, are left out.

Ismail’s government has also promised to reform Parliament with the Parliament Services Act, enact an anti party-hopping law and has included the opposition in matters such as formulating the national budget. 

While some of these laws are yet to be tabled, the “instability” has also made the government more “consultative” when it comes to tabling new bills. One example is its proposal to increase the fines under the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Act. Instead of bulldozing it through Parliament, the government withdrew the amendments for review at the last minute after the opposition said it would not support the changes that would, among others, raise fines for Covid-19 SOP violations. 

Having said that, governance in Malaysia was established on stability or an overwhelming majority, and until there is political maturity for a coalition government to rule without internal strife, parties can be expected to exploit the small margins to regain this “stability” and govern with minimal fuss.

Tired and politically fed-up Malaysians should prepare themselves for one state and one national election in 2022.

Johor polls

The Johor government now has a one-seat majority following the death of Kempas assemblyman Osman Sapian. 

Following Osman’s death on December 21, the state government, which is led by Barisan Nasional (BN) has 28 seats in the state legislative assembly, comprising BN (16), Bersatu (11) and PAS (one). Pakatan Harapan has 27 seats.

But according to pundits, Umno wants to hold elections in Johor to capitalise on the momentum it gained following its massive win in Malacca. 

Talk has it that besides regaining lost ground in the state, Umno also wants to weaken PH and Bersatu’s foothold in Johor.  

Another argument for early state polls is the chance to win back the state before to the implementation of Undi18 and to use it as a gauge for an early general election.

GE15

Right after winning the Malacca polls on November 20, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared that Ismail’s MOU with PH cannot prevent an early general election. The memorandum stipulates that GE15 will not be held before July 2022.

“We respect the MOU, but it is not a holy book, far from the verses in the Quran. Other than that, God willing, it can be changed,” said the former deputy prime minister. 

Although Ismail has not responded to Zahid, it is believed he will wait until July 2023 before calling for fresh polls.

Between now and the expiry of the 14th Parliament, Umno has to elect new office bearers by next November and Ismail will be keen to establish his own strength in the party polls.

As it is, the Bera MP is a party vice-president and subject to the demands of Zahid, the party president.

The stability theme is sure to be played up in Umno’s election campaign, leaving voters to choose again between what they rejected in 2018 and uncertainty, but also possibilities, that come with change. –  January 1, 2022.