BARISAN Nasional (BN) can comfortably win 11 seats and Pakatan Harapan (PH) can win seven in the Malacca elections tomorrow, said the Ilham Centre, based on interviews and surveys.

If BN can capture another four seats, it will have the simple majority needed to form the state government, it added in a summary of its survey released today.

The four are among 10 seats whose outcome is too close to call. The 10 are Asahan, Bemban, Durian Tunggal, Gadek, Kelebang, Machap Jaya, Pantai Kundor, Pengkalan Batu, Rembia and Tg Bidara.

The pollster predicts that BN will win in Ayer Limau, Ayer Molek, Kuala Linggi, Lendu, Merlimau, Rim, Serkam, Sg Rambai, Sg Udang, Taboh Naning and Telok Mas, while PH will win in Ayer Keroh, Bandar Hilir, Bukit Katil, Duyong, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Paya Rumput.

“BN has to win at least four more seats from the 10 ‘hot seats’ to get a simple majority. PH needs to defend the seats won in the last election,” it said on the eve of polling day

“Meanwhile, Perikatan Nasional (PN) has the opportunity to cause an upset in Tg Bidara, Rembia and Bemban. Its candidates in these three seats can win as they have equal strengths (going against BN and PH).”

The survey involved 1,051 respondents registered as voters in Malacca, and was conducted from October 23 to November 15.

BN, PH and PN will face each other in all 28 state seats, with some seats slated for six-cornered fights because of Independents.

Campaigning, which started on November 8, must end at midnight tonight.

“As we approach the final phase of the campaign period, BN is leading compared with PH and PN,” said the Ilham Centre.

“PH can win under two circumstances: if voter turnout is more than 80% or if PN breaks BN’s Malay votes. If these two scenarios do not happen, BN will be the winner in Malacca.”

However, low voter turnout (less than 70%) is likely due to three factors: fears of Covid-19 and a subsequent lockdown should there be a surge in cases; voters feel that the elections is the result of politicking and unnecessary; and, excessively strict standard operating procedures that dampen campaigns.

“A total of 84.7% of Malacca voters came out to cast their ballots in the 14th general election (GE14). This high turnout enabled PH to deny BN the state for the first time,” said the think tank, describing the polls tomorrow as the “coldest and gloomiest ” in the history of Malaysia.

“As a comparison, BN’s popular vote dipped by 16.5% in GE14, leaving it with only 37.3%, compared with the 53.8% in GE13.”

It said PH won the support of the people then because BN was knee-deep in the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal, and issues related to kleptocracy and Najib Razak.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s participating with the opposition was also a factor, it said, adding that now voters are no longer considering these factors.

Ilham Centre said as many as 11% of BN voters who voted for PH in GE14 may return to the former tomorrow.

Although PH had previously won Malacca, a series of political manoeuvres saw Umno come back to power as a PN partner after the Sheraton Move in May last year.

However, the Umno-led state government was toppled last month, following the withdrawal of support from four assemblymen for the chief minister, leading to the state assembly’s dissolution. – November 19, 2021.