IN normal circumstances, parties in government benefit when they face two or more opposition groups in an election as the latter will split the anti-establishment vote.

But such a scenario does not hold true for Kelantan where PAS is the party of the state government.

The two opposition pacts in Kelantan, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, hope that a wave of frustration with PAS among Kelantanese will allow either of them to capture the state government in the 14th general election.

Political analyst Hisommudin Bakar said it is still too early to say who will reap the most reward from this discontent towards PAS because of the state’s unique dynamics.

“The normal scenario of three-cornered fights doesn’t really apply to Kelantan,” said Hisommudin of the independent polling firm Ilham Centre.

First, Kelantan has a large base of voters who live and work outside the state but who return home to cast their ballots.

Wan Johari Wan Omar, a local Kelantan PH leader, said outstation voters make up almost 40% of all the state’s voters.

Second, Kelantan had until 2015, Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, one of the most influential figures in modern Malaysian politics.

Kelantan Umno activists admit that a significant portion of their own members in the state voted for PAS in previous elections because of Nik Aziz’s aura.

Lastly and most critically, Kelantanese voters tend to vote in one bloc, said Hisommudin, as was seen in the 2004 and 2013 general elections.

Just like Chinese Malaysian voters, this means that when Kelantanese voters decide who to give their votes to, that party or coalition receives near overwhelming support, especially from undecided voters.   

No more Nik Aziz

PAS has governed Kelantan since 1990 and the party has withstood repeated attempts by its traditional nemesis Umno – which leads BN – to retake the state.

The closest PAS ever came to losing the state to BN was in the 2004 elections where the Islamist party managed to form a government with a two-seat majority in the 45-seat assembly. 

Hisommudin said the 2004 elections was one of those instances where the Kelantanese voted en bloc, inspired by the feel-good vibes sweeping the country after Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over as prime minister and Umno president.

This is where the Nik Aziz factor and Kelantan’s large migrant community combined to help keep PAS in power.

“In the 2008 elections, Nik Aziz made a personal plea to all out-of-state Kelantanese voters to return and vote, after the disastrous 2004 elections,” said Hisommudin.

In 2008, PAS increased the state seats it held to 39 from 24 in 2004.

In the 2013 polls, the tide turned in the opposite direction to favour the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition, of which PAS was a member, helping the party to capture a two-thirds majority in the Kelantan legislature.

Wan Johari, who is Tumpat division chief for Amanah, a PH component party, said in 2013, PAS (as part of PR) garnered 70% of the outstation vote.

That wave looks to turn in the opposite direction again, according to Hisommudin and a straw poll by The Malaysian Insight.

Much of it is because of the state government’s poor management of local council services and its inability to provide jobs and better infrastructure.

“The Nik Aziz sentiment is also gone. He used to contribute up to 10% of the vote,” said Hisommudin, of the Kelantan menteri besar who died in February 2015. 

Evenly matched

Both BN and PH are working furiously to benefit from a weakened Kelantan PAS.

Kelantan BN chief Mustapa Mohamed said Amanah and PH have steadily eroded support for PAS via their exposes of the state government’s failed policies and the allegedly extravagant lifestyle of the state’s excos.  

“Amanah will pull away support for PAS towards PH. But (Bersatu) will not be able to pull away Umno members,” said Mustapa of Amanah’s ally in PH, Bersatu.

A source within Kelantan BN said the strategy is to allow Amanah and PH to pull away PAS votes from outstation Kelantanese, thus diluting votes for the Islamist party.

This will split Kelantanese voters into three groups and if BN can pull in undecided voters, it can emerge as the biggest bloc and take over enough state seats to form the state government, the source said. 

This theory, said Kelantan Amanah chairman Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah, ignores the fact that anger towards BN is also high because of the goods and services tax (GST) and the high cost of goods.

“Businesses in Kelantan have reported 30% drop in sales since the GST was implemented. In some places, their sales dropped by 50%. Some have even closed shop,” said Wan Rahim.

“The Kelantanese rejected Umno in 1990 and this rejection of Umno has increased under (Umno president) Najib Razak.”  

With its relatively unblemished track record, PH is positioning itself to be the best alternative to Umno in taking over Kelantan, said Wan Rahim.

Hisommudin said, as of now, PH and BN are almost evenly matched in terms chances of capturing Kelantan.

Umno is strong in rural areas and has a long history among Malay Muslims as being the political counter to PAS, while PH and Amanah are strong in urban areas as the aggressive new underdog.   

“Among Kelantanese there is a strong feeling of wanting to change the state government but Umno does not seem like it wants to reciprocate,” said Hisommudin.

“PH, on the other hand, is very aggressive at going after that demand for change but it is still new. So right now, we cannot empirically see yet who will win yet.” – January 30, 2018.