JUST as Malacca was a greatly coveted government in the 15th century, history repeats itself, albeit in a less global context.

Yet, just as the fate of world powers were greatly affected by their control of the then strategic trading port, so it seems the fortunes of the three political coalitions – Perikatan Nasional (PN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will be foretold by the victories and losses of the 28 seats up for grabs in the upcoming state elections.

Each of the three coalitions vying to helm the state has something to prove, with plenty at stake for each. 

For PH, it is to prove its continued legitimacy and further justify the claims it had their democratically won government stolen from them.

Perhaps less diplomatically correct, but certainly politically sweet would be to deny BN and PN a victory after the “Sheraton move”. It would also serve as a great morale booster after the many failed attempts to play the numbers game.

BN, too, is trying to regroup and regain much of its greatly lost footing since its defeat in 2018. Although it was part of the PN government and took over the prime ministership halfway, it never regained its political strength, far less its pole position as the undisputed, unchallengeable leading coalition with an unassailable Umno on top.  

BN’s key challenge would be to revive its juggernaut of a machinery that has gone into hibernation from lack of funds and leadership.

To do this, it also has to rebuild lost ties on both corporate and grassroots funding, which would be difficult after losing them to new competing political bodies like Bersatu, Pejuang and PH.

Ceding control of parts of the federal government and several state governments, as well as being unable to convince funders of an assured national victory they did in the yesteryears, would present somewhat of a challenge. 

To add to the political pressure, would be its incumbency of the prime ministership. Ismail Sabri Yaakob would be seeking to deliver Malacca to silence his critics, just as Muhyiddin Yassin did with Sabah. 

Speaking of the former prime minister, he too will want to deliver his second state to prove his leadership of his newly reclaimed Bersatu, and of his newly reformed yet largely unproven coalition, PN.

Although it has a pretty strong partnership in Sabah, it appears heavily dependent on PAS’ machinery in Peninsular Malaysia.  

The current dynamics between PAS, Umno and Bersatu presents a new and awkward problem for the three Malay-majority on-and-off-and on-again allies. 

PAS and Bersatu are both seeking to supplant Umno as the dominant Malay party; the only difference is the latter doing so more unabashedly than the former.

It would be hard to do, after two years of sharing the ruling pedestal and convincing everyone that the three were brothers-in-arms defending the Malay-Muslim population from DAP, and by association, PH, evil politicians who did not have Muslim interests at heart.

Suddenly this isn’t as important as outgunning each other in the Malacca polls? 

Instead, both sides that have played to the right wing, are suddenly softening their stance and presenting a moderate outlook and touting multiculturalism.

Would this last second about-turn work by eating into what is normally PN’s narrative? We will know in a few weeks’ time. 

Individual candidates, particularly those involved in the collapse of the state government, like Idris Haron and Norhizam Hassan Baktee, would have wins to prove, as are newcomers replacing former popular state representatives, like PKR’s Machap Jaya candidate Ginie Lim Siew Lin. 

More interestingly, perhaps, is how the outcome of Malacca elections will impact our national alliances as parties step up gears to take on the general election due in less than two years. 

A PH win, while a much-needed boost to the opposition pact to consolidate, could force PN and BN to reconsider their current trajectories and patch up their drifting alliance.

A strong win for either PN or BN could either nudge the other side to re-evaluate federal ties, or acknowledge the leadership (and dominance) of the other party. 

It could also force the Bornean parties to relook their current alliances and shift the power balance yet again. 

The Malacca elections are proving to be one every party wants to win, and no one can really afford to lose. – November 10, 2021.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.