THE Health Ministry’s ban on all gatherings related to the Malacca elections will greatly affect campaigning for the upcoming polls and may result in lower voter turnout, a political analyst and party grassroots leaders said.

Campaigning is required to raise the interest of voters, said Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar, and without the usual events and ceramah, voter turnout could be poor.

“The big question is the percentage of voter turnout, which could be lower than the Election Commission’s (EC) projection of 70%.

“In our study (of voter sentiments), it turns out that the majority, regardless of race, are not happy that elections are being held,” Hisomuddin said.

The polls were called after four assemblymen withdrew support from the chief minister.

The state governor then opted to dissolve the assembly, despite concerns about holding elections amid an epidemic.

Hisommudin said polls showed many Chinese were unhappy about the elections.

“This will affect non-Malay voters who live outside the state. They will not encourage their children working out of state to return to vote due to concerns about the spread of Covid-19.

“The feeling is that the elections could increase the number of Covid-19 cases,” Hisomuddin said, adding that while vaccination decreases the risk of getting infected and severity of the disease, the fact is infections do happen among the vaccinated.

Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin has barred rallies and social gatherings related to the Malacca elections until November 27.

Khairy said the risk of Covid-19 infection is still high.

Not expecting good voter turnout

Bersatu Masjid Tanah committee member Husin Abd Kadir also doubted turnout will be good.

“Win or lose I don’t know yet. We are ready, but with the pandemic, who wants to go out and vote?” Husin said.

He predicted a worst-case scenario of a 40% turnout, suspecting even strong supporters of Umno, PAS and Bersatu may be reluctant to go out and vote.

Husin said he expected only the party committee members working in the elections will vote in the end.

“I believe (ordinary) members may not go to the polls because of the risks.”

Bukit Salleh Umno deputy division chief Hazreen Hamzah said most people he has met have indicated that they don’t want to vote because of Covid-19.

“We leave it to the leadership to decide what they want to do. There is a pandemic and they want to have elections?

“The older folk who are not very healthy have indicated they don’t want to go out to vote even though they are staunch supporters of Umno.

“If they do not come out, where are we going to get the votes?” said Hazreen.

He wondered how Umno will win the rural seats if the Malays do not vote, especially in the face of three-cornered fights which would split the Malay vote between Umno and Bersatu, which now has PAS on its side under the Perikatan Nasional logo.

Onus on safety pushed to voters

While there was initial speculation that an emergency would be called to prevent the elections, the EC has set polling for November 20, to be preceded by nominations on November 8.

Since the polls now appear inevitable, health experts warn that the onus is now on voters to strictly follow the standard operating procedures (SOP) to minimise the risks of contracting Covid-19.

Doctors said the most important things voters can do are to be vaccinated, practise social distancing and keep wearing masks.

Malaysian Public Health Medicine Specialist Association president Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar said there are risks but the Malacca situation is probably better than that of the Sabah elections last year due to the success of the vaccination programme.

“Yet the risks are still there. To reduce them, voters must strictly follow the SOP and restrict interaction with others, avoid gatherings, and limit exposure when voting,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

The Sabah elections in September last year triggered a new wave of Covid-19 infections.

There was no Covid-19 vaccine at the time and the Health Ministry had only made quarantine mandatory post elections.

Zainal said the Health Ministry’s ban on campaign gatherings was probably for good reason as such gatherings are likely to spread infection.

Polling is not as worrying as campaign activities, he said.

“When it’s time to vote, people will queue up, cast their ballots and leave. It will be like going shopping at the supermarket. So there is no problem.”

Zainal added that the Malacca polls may be good as a test run for the general election, which must be held by mid-2023.

Universiti Putra Malaysia epidemiologist and biostatistician Prof Malina Osman said theoretically infections can be prevented if campagining is prohibited.

“As long as the SOP is followed, it should be safe for voters.” – November 4, 2021.