THE AUKUS pact comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States is sure to start an arms race in the South China Sea more than the QUAD, which was more of “a pivot to Asia” in the words of ex-US president Barack Obama, will.

AUKUS will be given more prominence as it includes Britain and the QUAD will be demoted to become secondary. Both pacts are designed to act as a check and balance on a rapidly rising China, which regional neighbours feel is a threat especially with issues like the Spratly islands and the Sino-Indian border.

Both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean could see a dangerous arms race. Malaysia is right in saying that these pacts will herald a negative arms rivalry in the Indo-pacific. For long there was no big-time rivalry as many nations observed the ASEAN concept of ZOPFAN which, after the end of the Vietnam War, became a true lasting reality.

Now, with the intention of containing or encircling an ‘aggressive’ China, some regional nations and even outsiders like the UK are ganging up on China. China is not going to take this lightly and will surely up the ante as tensions rise not only about the Spratly Islands issue but also the in North East with North Korea, Taiwan and regional claims involving Japan, China and Russia not being resolved. Even Russia will enter the fray as it has big plans to develop its far east.

Military pacts can become obsolete or less important as was the case with the Warsaw Pact, and NATO is losing its unity and significance. The US debacle in Afghanistan and the way it dumped all its allies, including India, should have been a lesson to other nations not to follow the US blindly. India made investments amounting to a few billion dollars, which it could have utilised domestically, hoping that the US was in Afghanistan for the long haul.

Suddenly the US pulled out without a proper peace agreement and jeopardised the investments, efforts and contributions of many allies. This is the true nature of the US, which will use nations and dump them when it becomes necessary for ‘national interest’. Hence, nations like India should be wary of the US. India is of the opinion that membership in QUAD will strengthen it in its border dispute with China. India has to just look back to 1971 during the Indo-Pakistani war when then president Richard Nixon sent warships to the Bay of Bengal to threaten India.

Fortunately, the Soviet Union hurriedly sent its own fleet to warn the US of any attacks against India. The war saw the birth of Bangladesh.  Russia was a true friend of India’s, not the US.

The US can be seen harping that “India and the US are democratic nations and share many common values”. Other than this rigmarole there is nothing meaningful or substantial about the US attitude towards India.

The Afghan episode is a fresh reminder. The US refuses India access to some of the terrorists in its custody who could provide valuable evidence. India needs an independent foreign policy as was shown when, despite US pressure, India did not sanction Myanmar. If not, India could have antagonised the Myanmar Generals for nothing and created an unfriendly neighbour.

The Quad members, India and Japan, have co-existed with China since 1949. Just because China has progressed to becoming a superpower and the second largest economy simply does not mean that the two nations need to fear China.

The Spratly islands have been an issue for decades and can be sorted out by ASEAN and China collectively. China and India have been friends for centuries and have even exchanged scholars, and there has been a lot of cultural and religious interaction for millennia.

It is the West, especially the US, that is prodding India to confront China and the right-wing government of Narendra Modi is falling into the US trap. The West fears that the Asian Century heralded by China and India will ensure their decline in world affairs and the best way is to create trouble between the Asian giants.

The West is a past master of divide-and-rule policies. India will gain a lot economically with a friendly and prosperous China, but will lose out if it chooses enmity with its big neighbour as it will have to spend billions of dollars on military expenditure, and this will stunt economic growth.

China can create maximum trouble and tension for India if it wants as both share a lengthy border. It will be foolish for India to expect the US to help it if a serious war breaks out with China.

Russia, too, needs to become part of the Asian Century as it has vast potential for development in the Far East. Russia distrusts the West and can be good friends with a fast-developing Asia. At the time, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 the EU was boasting of its “lakes of milk and mountains of butter” – the height of its prosperity – but no assistance was rendered to the Russians who had a tough time after the break-down of their socio-economic and political system.

The West expected Russia to slide further but, somehow, the hardy Russian people survived and finally found their footing in President Vladimir Putin, who has brought much stability, progress and restored its military might.

Now, the West talks about the need for democracy in Russia. What hypocrisy! What the West fears most is a grouping comprising China, India and Russia and, if it can become a reality, it will be a nightmare for the erstwhile hegemons.

The Western powers will use all kinds of tricks to goad one nation against the other and Asian nations need to be on the alert. Even though the West has surrendered all its colonies, its colonial mentality is still intact. The AUKUS wants to have a last shot at a fast-rising Asia before the inevitable decline of the US and the UK.

The inclusion of the UK has raised suspicions about the AUKUS pact and it must be more than a case of manufacturing nuclear powered submarines in Australia. More than any others, nations like the US, the UK and Australia fear the loss of prestige and their hegemonic status. Whatever military pacts or alliances, there is no stopping the much-heralded Asian Century whose time has come. Asia will dominate the future. – September 23, 2021.

*V. Thomas reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.