BN will win two-thirds majority with low voter turnout, says analyst

Asila Jalil Amin Iskandar Asila Jalil, Amin Iskandar Updated 6 years ago · Published on 23 Jan 2018 8:23PM · 3 Comments

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat says a low voter turnout in the 14th general election will allow BN to regain two-thirds majority in Parliament. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Hasnoor Hussain, January 23, 2018.

LOW voter turnout of 70% will hand Barisan Nasional (BN) a two-thirds majority in the impending general election, political analyst Wong Chin Huat said.

Wong of the Penang Institute said the ruling coalition’s chances of securing a two-thirds majority will depend on voter turnout.

“If voter turnout is high, it is usually because people are angry and this would cost the government and also cause the failure of gerrymandering,” he said during a forum on electoral redelineation at Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) in Shah Alam today.

Voter turnout in the last national polls in 2013 was nearly 85%. BN failed to regain its two-thirds majority in Parliament and obtained 47% of the popular vote, while the then opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat won 52%.

Voter turnout in previous elections have generally been over 70%.

Wong’s analysis comes as calls to boycott or cast spoilt votes in the 14th general election circulate on social media.

Those holding such sentiments have said they are unhappy with the lack of choices while some are upset at the opposition for naming Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister candidate despite his chequered tenure.

Wong said many people did not realise the consequences if they failed to vote.

He said if BN won back a two-thirds majority, they would have the ability to amend the constitution to add new seats in Parliament, which will trigger a new round of redelineation of electoral boundaries.

The federal constitution provides that a redelineation exercise should be conducted at least every eight years.

Wong said that while the current redelineation did not add electoral seats, an exercise that did must be completed within two years, it would open the doors for the EC to do so.

“However, if more seats are added in parliament or in state assemblies, therefore redelineation must be completed within two years,” he said.

“(So) if people don’t vote, they would not only help the EC (Election Commission) but in fact they would open the door to a worse redelineation. That’s the biggest problem that the people do not see.” – January 23, 2018.

Sign up or sign in here to comment.

Comments

  • The act to boycott or cast spoilt votes are actually a ploy devised by UmnoBN on the fear of loosing. The less than wider scope of survey conducted by political analysts are not in sync with the actual sentiments on the ground. Even the pro UmnoBn analyst are trying very hard to skew the perceptions. Datas from their research group are base more from their own supporters view with a sole purpose to change the dynamic of voting patterns. Applying the reverse psychology to both the old and younger set voters in believing that the opposition fronts are senselessly bickering. They are actually trying hard to allude and instigate the voters to either boycott or spoilt the votes. The opposition has some hard work to do here and convince the masses that their houses are in order and vote without fear. I believe the tsunami of disgust and hatred for UmnoBn by all the rakyat irrespective of races will be hella of phenomenal never ever seen since independence. Whether it is a straight fight or three corner or even the devious gerrymandering will not suffice for UmnoBn to win at all. UmnoBn has taken their 60 years of regime for granted and self wallowing in false mastery of dominance. Anyway good riddance!!!!

    Posted 6 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply

    • The bickering in PH can be mainly attributed to one party ...... PKR ... and the Machiavellian megalomaniac AZMIN ....

      Posted 6 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply

  • 2018 election at what ever cost PH will form the govt.

    Posted 6 years ago by Mohanarajan murugeson · Reply