THERE are no signs of any Malay “tsunami” but the ripples are being felt, said a political researcher with Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).

Mazlan Ali pointed out there is a phenomenon similar to 1999 where people who do not normally participate in politics are coming out and attending certain ceramahs.

“There’s no wave yet but some ripples are there. So it looks like a wave is coming.

“This may continue as PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim is also due to be released in June,” Mazlan said at a forum in University Malaya today.

Mazlan said the observations were made when he attended four of Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s events in Pasir Puteh, Kuala Berang, Jerantut and Semenyih last year.

“Although, it’s only anecdotal, but I have noticed many Umno and PAS supporters also attending these events.

“And what’s more interesting is there are even people who don’t normally take part in politics attending these events,” said Mazlan, who added that it’s easy to distinguish between first-time and regular ceramah attendees.

He said some of them may not be Umno or PAS members per se but were definitely voters for the two parties.

“There was one woman who came with a baby and the baby was crying but she ignored her and continued focusing on the ceramah. This is very similar to 1999 where those who normally don’t take part in politics came out to listen,” said Mazlan.

He was answering a question on whether a Malay tsunami is forthcoming in the next elections.

ISEAS Yusof-Ishak (ISEAS) senior fellow Wan Saiful Wan Jan said all polls and surveys point to another Barisan Nasional victory in the 14th general elections.

“But the quantitative work has its limitations and my qualitative interviews with voters show a Malay swing is possible,” said Wan Saiful.

“The two main issues are Dr Mahathir’s influence and the anger towards (Prime Minister) Najib Razak and the various allegations. This is especially among the urban Malay voters.

“Allegations against Najib are causing a distraction from the reforms he wants to carry out.”

Wan Saiful, however, said it was still too early to tell whether there will be a Malay tsunami in GE14.

National Council of Professors (MPN) research fellow Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali said the issues that can move Malay voters are issues on religion, ethnicity, monarchy and culture.

“It’s like the time when Dr Mahathir sacked Anwar in 1998 and the latter was widely seen as an Islamic leader or when Umno in Johor rejected the teaching of Science and Maths in English (PPSMI). These kind of issues can trigger the Malay vote.

“But I don’t see these issues at the moment. PAS is confused by the infighting while middle-class Malays are becoming more religious. So if Umno can move the middle-class Malays, they can still benefit,” said Asri.

Earlier, the three gave presentations ahead of GE14 at University Malaya.

Asri presented “Lexicographic voters in Malaysia focusing on Pahang”, Mazlan on “Political trend and GE14 simulation (Terengganu) and Wan Saiful on “Is Umno in trouble in Johor”.

The event was organised by UM’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (UMCEDEL) and moderated by UMCEDEL director Prof Hamidin Abd Hamid. – January 18, 2018